Dissertations/Thesis

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2024
Dissertations
1
  • GABRIELA DOS SANTOS BARBOZA
  • IDENTIFICATION OF PRECIPITATION THRESHOLDS CAUSING FLOODING IN SMALL-SCALE BASINS: CASE STUDY FOR THE JOSÉ PEREIRA RIVER, ITAJUBÁ/MG

  • Advisor : BENEDITO CLAUDIO DA SILVA
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • BENEDITO CLAUDIO DA SILVA
  • MARIA CLARA FAVA
  • MARINA BATALINI DE MACEDO
  • SAMARA CALCADO DE AZEVEDO
  • Data: Feb 29, 2024


  • Show Abstract
  • Extreme events, such as flash flood, have increased globally, causing significant damage. In Brazil, this concern is worsened by climate change, with phenomena such as La Niña in 2022 and El Niño until 2024. José Pereira river, in Itajubá/MG, crosses the urban area and is susceptible to flooding. This study aims to establish precipitation thresholds that trigger floods in the José Pereira river basin. To this end, the basin was characterized, considering climate data, flood history, topography, soil, land use and subdivision into sub-basins. Subsequently, parameters such as curve coefficient (CN), concentration time and lag time were calculated. It was then possible to select two flood events in the rainy season of 2022 and 2023 to calibrate the HEC-HMS model, using level and precipitation data from stations available in the basin. Furthermore, parameter calibration sought an acceptable fit between observed and simulated data. Based on this, events were chosen for simulation based on a minimum daily accumulation, selected from the historical series records from 2013 to 2023 from the UNIFEI-CEPREMG rainfall station. To define this minimum value, maximum rainfall analysis and return time calculations were carried out, indicating a value of 40 mm in 24 hours. These events demonstrated concentrated and distributed rainfall, highlighting the influence of upstream basins on the variation in river levels during flood events. Detailed analysis revealed that significant precipitation occurs between the first 25% and 50% of the total duration of rainfall triggering overflow or flooding. From the simulations, the minimum accumulated rainfall necessary to exceed 1.5m in river was identified. Through simulations, the minimum volume of accumulated rain necessary to exceed the 1.5m mark in river was determined. Analysis of the resulting graph, together with the logarithmic curve derived from the minimum accumulation in each selected event, revealed that upon reaching 34.60mm of accumulated precipitation, regardless of the duration and distribution of the rain, it becomes essential to issue an alert.

Thesis
1
  • ALEXANDRE GERMANO MARCIANO
  • CHARACTERIZATION OF THE HYDRODYNAMICS AND SEDIMENT TRANSPORT OF THE THREE MAIN ATTRIBUTORS OF THE DOCE RIVER

  • Advisor : ARCILAN TREVENZOLI ASSIREU
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • ALEXANDRE AUGUSTO BARBOSA
  • ARCILAN TREVENZOLI ASSIREU
  • BENEDITO CLAUDIO DA SILVA
  • FREDERICO FABIO MAUAD
  • MARCOS EDUARDO CORDEIRO BERNARDES
  • Data: Mar 12, 2024


  • Show Abstract
  • On November 5th, 2015, in the municipality of Mariana, Minas Gerais, there was the biggest tailings dam accident in Brazil. The Fundão dam collapsed, spilling 32 million cubic meters of waste, causing a severe socioeconomic and environmental impact on the Doce River. After the accident, much research has been carried out to understand and minimize the impacts. One of the ways to understand the dynamics of the Mariana – MG disaster, from the perspective of hydrodynamics, is through models. With the aim of understanding the role of tributaries in the recovery of the Doce River, hydrodynamic and sediment transport simulations were carried out, using the two-dimensional version of the HEC-RAS model, at the confluences of the Gualaxo do Norte River with the Carmo River, of the do Carmo with the Piranga river, the Suaçuí Grande river with the Doce river and the Manhuaçu river with the Doce river. The results of the 2D hydrodynamic model showed the hydrographs and areas flooded by the disaster in Mariana – MG, that the reservoir of the Risoleta Neves Hydroelectric Plant would hypothetically hold the waste from the disaster if the floodgates had been kept closed, that the narrowing of the Doce river channel in the municipality of Governador Valadares – MG caused the flow speed to increase substantially, and the topographic conditions of the confluence of the Manhuaçu River with the Doce River meant that the simulation was varied with slow speeds in the reservoirs and high speeds in narrow stretches. The results of the 2D sediment transport model showed erosion and sedimentation in the studied areas, that the Carmo river exerts a mixing and dilution function of the sediments transported by the Gualaxo do Norte river, which the Suaçuí Grande river and the Manhuaçu river do not have capacity to perform a mixing and dilution function of the sediments transported by the Doce River in a short period, and that the dams interfere considerably with the sediment transport regime. In addition to these results, the sediment transport model showed that large amounts of sediment were retained on the banks of the rivers at the confluence of the Carmo River with the Piranga River and on the rock banks, which makes this confluence an important location for the retention of contaminated sediments, with significant influences on downstream water quality. However, these results can contribute to decision-making, to identify stretches with greater susceptibility to erosion and sediment deposition and to plan the restoration of these rivers.

2023
Dissertations
1
  • SARA MARIA MARQUES
  • APPLICATION OF GENETIC ALGORITHMS IN OPERATION OF WATER DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS WITH THE USE OF R and EPANET SOFTWARE FOR THE CONTROL OF WATER LOSSES - STUDY IN A NETWORK THEORETICAL

  • Advisor : FERNANDO DAS GRACAS BRAGA DA SILVA
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • FERNANDO DAS GRACAS BRAGA DA SILVA
  • IVAN FELIPE SILVA DOS SANTOS
  • JOSE ANTONIO TOSTA DOS REIS
  • Data: Feb 15, 2023


  • Show Abstract
  • The disorderly use of water resources leads them to depletion, resulting in the emergence of
    environmental and social issues. Thus, a relevant aspect to be observed in water supply
    systems are the losses that occur throughout the operating process of the system. However,
    the largest water losses are in the distribution networks, which lead water to homes,
    businesses and industries. This fact causes financial losses and mainly natural losses. The
    concern that the theme brings is relevant to the use of measures that allow its reduction. For this, the use of computer simulations of networks is intended to study their behavior,
    especially to identify areas prone to water loss. Thus, it was developed, in the present study,
    methodology of operation of water distribution network, using two methods: genetic
    algorithms and random search, aiming at the optimization of the system through the
    optimization of network pressures and thus the reduction of losses. The parameters of the
    theoretical study network were changed, such as: reservoir level, roughness, diameter,
    demand, pumps and pressure reducing valves simultaneously, using the tools R and EPANET. The loss reduction found with the simulation using the Genetic Algorithm was 15.75%. In the random simulation, the loss reduction found was 9.79%. In addition, the values of pressures found in the optimal generation, presented by the genetic algorithm, were much better than that of the random, because the high pressures that the network presented before the simulation were below 50 m.c.a. Thus, the simulation of the study network on the use of the genetic algorithm method was much better, with optimized loss and pressure values.

2
  • MATEUS CORTEZ MARCONDES
  • Calibration Studies of a Real Water Distribution Network Using Artificial Neural Networks for Control Water Losses

  • Advisor : FERNANDO DAS GRACAS BRAGA DA SILVA
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • ANA PAULA MONI SILVA
  • EUDES JOSÉ ARANTES
  • FERNANDO DAS GRACAS BRAGA DA SILVA
  • Data: Feb 16, 2023


  • Show Abstract
  • Water supply comprises one of the aspects of basic sanitation where the fundamental rights of every citizen must be guaranteed by virtue of the laws that govern its guidelines. The public power, at the municipal level, is one of the main responsible for the management and operation of water supply systems, managing the infrastructure and facilities in all processes to ensure the full operation to fulfill the obligations surrounding the supply of resources. Considering the theme of water losses, network simulation approaches allow adjustments and propositions of improvements that ensure efficient water supply, however due to the uncertainties regarding input parameters for realistic predictions the calibration step is necessary. This paper aims to apply a calibration methodology with artificial neural networks for use in water distribution networks. The methodology consists in the use of artificial neural networks to make the calibration from input data in the real network, with the use of Python as the programming environment used. The results show that these tools prove to be promising for analyzing this type of problem, considering the complexity of the hydraulic analysis in the face of different scenarios and the large amount of information generated. The calibrations show that the use of Artificial Neural Networks achieves good levels of calibration amid the scarcity of information in real networks and achieves better results compared to other calibration methods such as the random iterative search method. Thus the continuity of this research can strengthen better calibrations targeting real systems and the control of losses in their water distribution systems. New studies and technologies can contribute to the reduction of losses and consequently the saving of water, a resource that is scarce and crucial for society.

3
  • JOÃO GABRIEL MARTINS RIBEIRO
  • Characterization of Electrical Storms in the Southeast Region of Brazil

  • Advisor : ENRIQUE VIEIRA MATTOS
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • ENRIQUE VIEIRA MATTOS
  • MICHELLE SIMOES REBOITA
  • WEBER ANDRADE GONÇALVES
  • Data: Feb 16, 2023


  • Show Abstract
  • Annually, storms that occur in the Southeast of Brazil generate several disturbances to society. The Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS) generate material losses and human lives, through the production of flooding, falling trees, hail and lightning. The spatial distribution of lightning and the properties of these storms vary greatly within this region. However, there is still a lack in the literature on the behavior of intracloud lightning and its relationship with the properties of storms. Thus, the present work aims to characterize the occurrences of lightning between 2015 and 2021 and to evaluate the physical and electrical differences in the MCS with and without lightning between 2015 and 2017 in the Southeast region of Brazil. For this, information from the meteorological satellite Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-13) was used, with lightning information from the Earth Network's Total Lightning Network (ENTLN). The identification and tracking of MCS was carried out using the algorithm Forecast and Tracking the Evolution of Cloud Clusters (ForTraCC). The first stage of the work consisted in evaluating the space-time distribution of lightning. Maximum of lightning occur near the mountainous regions of São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro (IC: 80 occurrences year-1 km-2 and -CG: 18 year-1 km-2), concentrated from the period of afternoon (12:00 local time), with a maximum at 16:00 local time (47,000, 2,300 and 73 occurrences of IC, -CG and +CG), and mainly in the spring and summer (maximum values of 4011, 1025 and 35 flashes IC, -CG and +CG). The current peak shows maximums in spring and autumn (~40 kA for the +CG) and a lower amount in the winter period (~20 kA for the -CG). In the second stage, the physical and electrical differences between the MCS with and without lightning were evaluated. The main physical and electrical differences between these groups show that the MCS without lightning has a smaller area (difference of 1920 km2), duration (between 30 and 60 min), expansion rate (40 x 10-6 s-1) and higher temperatures (11.5 K difference) than MCS with lightning. The life cycle behavior of lightning shows higher occurrences moments before maturation (maximum of IC: 116, -CG: 21 and +CG: 0.75 occurrences 30 min-1). These analyses are important to improve the predictability of these storms and consequently the decision-making, providing the minimization of damages linked to the harmful effects of these storms.

4
  • FLÁVIA FERNANDA AZEVEDO FAGUNDES
  • Cardinal temperatures and modeling of the initial development of two forest species under current and future climate.

  • Advisor : FABRINA BOLZAN MARTINS
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • FABRINA BOLZAN MARTINS
  • GIANCARLO AQUILA
  • ROGER RODRIGUES TORRES
  • Data: Feb 16, 2023


  • Show Abstract
  • Increases in air temperature projected throughout the 21st century may impact the initial development dynamics of forest species, especially those located in persistent climate change hotspots. To deal with such threats, it is essential to know the thermal thresholds, evaluate development in current climate conditions and identify the climate change impacts, as well as assess the financial viability for seedling production in future climate conditions. This dissertation aims to: i) estimate the cardinal temperatures and the thermal requirements for the initial development of two native Brazilian forest species - Cybistax antisyphilitica (Mart.) Mart. and Platycyamus regnellii Benth - using data from multiple sowing dates, ii) calibrate and evaluate the performance of both developmental models – Philochron (Phyl) and Wang and Engel (WE) - in estimating the initial development dynamics of both species, and , iii) identify the possible impacts of projected increases in air temperature on the seedling phase duration, and financial viability for the production of seedlings of the two forest species in a forest nursery. To achieve i and ii aims, phenological data from experiments conducted over twelve sowing dates during the years 2017 and 2018 in Itajubá, Minas Gerais were used. The three cardinal temperatures were estimated using appropriate statistical methods. The two development models – Phyl and WE – were calibrated and evaluated for experimental conditions. Regarding iii aim, data from 13 Earth System Models (ESM) from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP), i.e., the new generation from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were used. The development model (Phyl or WE) that presented the best performance for the experimental conditions was fed with the ESMs outputs simulated for the current climate (CC, 1995-2014), and projected for the near future (NF, 2041-2060) and far future (FF, 2081-2100) in two radiative forcing scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). In addition, the financial viability of producing seedlings of both species was analyzed using the net present value for CC, NF and FF. C. antisyphilitica develops properly between temperatures of 13 °C, 20 °C and 48.4 °C and P. regnellii between 13.7 °C, 21.5 °C and 43.4 °C. For C. antisyphilitica, the Phyl and WE models were remarkably similar in estimating the cumulative leaf number (CLN), and seedling phase duration (SPD), with an error of ~3.3 leaves and 25 days, respectively. On the other hand, the WE model was slightly superior for P. regnellii, with an error of less than 2.06 leaves (CLN) and 13.1 days (SPD). The projected increases in air temperature between ~ 1.1 °C and ~ 4 °C for Itajubá should not make the SPD of the two forest species unfeasible. However, they could generate financial losses in forest nurseries due adaptation measures. Simulated sowing dates between January and June may have SPD reductions for both forest species (up to 36 days). On the contrary, the simulated sowing dates from July to December may have small SPD increases (between 1 and 10 days). It will be necessary to adopt adaptive measures to maintain the seedlings quality and vigorin NF and FF, which will generate increases in seedling production costs from approximately 9% to 137%. More significant increases in costs will occur from August to November, exactly when the SPD increases are projected.

5
  • IVANA RIÊRA PEREIRA BASTOS
  • Estimation of the distribution of Ultraviolet Radiation in different parts of the body

  • Advisor : MARCELO DE PAULA CORREA
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • ALEXANDRE LIMA CORREIA
  • ENRIQUE VIEIRA MATTOS
  • MARCELO DE PAULA CORREA
  • Data: Feb 17, 2023


  • Show Abstract
  • Ultraviolet Radiation (UVR) is responsible for several physical, chemical and biological
    processes, both on the surface and in the Earth's atmosphere. In humans, UVR can cause
    benefits, such as vitamin D synthesis, and harm, such as burns, premature aging and skin cancer.
    In general, instruments and radiative transfer models are used to measure or estimate the
    incidence of UVR, but they take into account that the radiation is reaching a horizontal surface.
    For this reason, they do not reliably represent the accumulated dose of UVR in different parts
    of the human body, called erythemic dose (D-UVE). After all, the parts of our body are inclined
    in relation to the Sun, making it necessary to represent the incident UVR through a threedimensional geometric model (MGe). Therefore, this study has the general objective of
    analyzing the variation in the incidence of UVR in different parts of the body considering
    different geographic and atmospheric characteristics, the time of exposure and the individual's
    position in relation to the Sun. For this, an experiment was installed, under a completely
    randomized experimental design, aiming to evaluate the D-UVE incident on the different parts
    of the body of a mannequin. The results indicated a significant interaction (p ≤ 0.05) between
    the D-UVE, the orientation on the dummy and the positions of the sensors on the human body.
    Even in the winter months, when the availability of solar radiation is lower, D-UVE can be
    enough to cause erythema even in less sensitive skin, regardless of the individual's orientation.
    In parallel, a MGe, developed in Python, was adapted to estimate the UVR on inclined surfaces,
    taking into account input conditions adapted to geographic and temporal variations of any
    location on the planet. In the first hours of the day, the D-UVE was more intense in the east
    orientation, in which the Sun is rising and positioning itself in relation to the horizon.
    Considering an hour of exposure around noon, the values observed with the face facing south
    are significantly higher than those observed in relation to the north, considering the position of
    the Sun at this time. Also, radiation fluxes on inclined surfaces at the angle of inclination of the
    surface relative to the horizontal plane at β = 30° are higher than on vertical surfaces, since, at
    β = 90°, the direct component tends to zero, therefore, prevailing only the diffuse component.
    As for the full-day exposure, it was observed that, even in winter, there are risks of damage to
    health for individuals of all phototypes. From this research, it will be possible to simulate DUVE values on inclined surfaces for locations anywhere on the planet, with emphasis on South
    Hemisphere, which had not yet been the subject of research in works under these conditions.
    For future works, it is suggested to improve the entire methodology of the Adapted Geometric
    Model (MGeA), in order to analyze and compile the semi-empirical equations and specific
    treatments, to avoid generalist results.

6
  • PEDRO DE OLIVEIRA MOURA BUCKER
  • Capability for Use and Occupation of Urban Lands Itajubá (MG)

  • Advisor : NIVEA ADRIANA DIAS PONS
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • ANA LUCIA FONSECA
  • MARX LEANDRO NAVES SILVA
  • NIVEA ADRIANA DIAS PONS
  • SAMARA CALCADO DE AZEVEDO
  • Data: Feb 17, 2023


  • Show Abstract
  • The processes of expansion and urban development of cities are continuous and intrinsic to human nature, transforming not only landscapes and the dynamics of the physical environment, but directly affecting urban soils. When these changes brought about in favor of development are not linked to sustainable growth and a correct assessment of the capability to use and occupy urban land, a series of problems are caused that contribute both to the increase in the processes of degradation of the urban environment and to the reduction of the quality of life of the population, causing numerous social conflicts. In this sense, the present work aims to identify the capability to use and occupy urban land, in Itajubá (MG), where the characteristics of the factors of the physical environment are considered. For this, geoprocessing techniques were used, aiming to unite the factors that best represent the three-dimensional space of interest, resulting in a map that expresses the real capability for use and occupation of urban land in Itajubá. As a result, the classes of aptitude for urban constructions (24.9km²), aptitude for urban constructions and urban agriculture (6.0 km²), aptitude for environmental preservation (12.33km²) and aptitude for waste disposal (0.0km). Subsequently, they were analyzed together with the capability for use and occupation of urban land, the use and occupation of land in the area of interest, identifying the regions that have degradation processes. This analysis made it possible to verify the conflicts of use of existing urban lands in relation to the map of capability for use and occupation of urban lands to the municipal urban zoning. The municipal urban zoning of Itajubá only delimits the urban expansion zones, and does not establish a hierarchy of which uses should be prioritized for urban land in these areas, which can potentiate the existence of conflicts in these urban lands. The identified areas presenting conflicts between the current use and the capability to use and occupy urban land are located in the northeast region where the implantation of a technology park takes place in an area that was classified as of environmental preservation, in the south and southwest portions that show the growing presence of residences in areas that could be destined for horticulture and/or the installation of leisure areas, such as parks, squares and forest gardens, highlighting the contrasts with the capability for use and occupation of urban land in these places, which can contribute to the increase of environmental degradation in the city in the future. Finally, it is concluded that the identification of the capability to use and occupy urban land in Itajubá can help urban planning, in the medium and long term, in a more adequate management of urban land which, if carried out in a sustainable way, can lead to the reduction of existing environmental degradation processes. Consequently, the reduction of expenses with corrective measures can be reversed in investments for the prevention of disasters due to extreme events and in the implantation of sustainable urban elements for the better quality of life of the population.

7
  • Leandro Fortunato de Faria
  • ANALYSIS OF HEAT FLOWS IN A EXPLOSIVE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE: NUMERICAL SENSITIVITY EXPERIMENTS

  • Advisor : MICHELLE SIMOES REBOITA
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • LUIZ FELIPPE GOZZO
  • MICHELLE SIMOES REBOITA
  • VANESSA SILVEIRA BARRETO CARVALHO
  • Data: Feb 24, 2023


  • Show Abstract
  • Extratropical cyclones are one of the atmospheric systems that most cause weather changes in the regions where they operate. In some situations, these systems have a deepening rate of ~24 hPa/24 h, which gives them the name of explosive cyclones. An important source of energy influencing the development of extratropical cyclones is surface sensible and latent heat fluxes (FCSL), especially over the oceans. Between late June and early July 2020, an explosive cyclone occurred off the southern coast of Brazil. As little is known about the physical development processes of explosive extratropical cyclones in the South Atlantic, the aim of this work is to verify whether turbulent heat flows from the ocean to the atmosphere contributed to deepen the system (pressure drop >= 24 hPa /24 h) and describe the drivers of cyclogenesis; to investigate the contribution of the sea-air nteraction, through numerical simulations with the Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF), and to present the physical properties of the clouds associated with the squall line, which aused a lot of environmental and material damages and, even, the death of at least 12 people in the State of Santa Catarina (SC). Cyclogenesis started at 1200 UTC on June 30, 2020
    at the southern border of Brazil and Uruguay, with a valley at mid-upper levels as forcing,
    which is a common parameter of cyclogenesis in the studied region. ERA5 reanalysis data were used to describe the configuration of the cyclone and associated systems. The description of the impacts in the State of SC was carried out through the review of news published by the media and data provided by the civil defense of the State. To verify the role of turbulent heat fluxes, a comparison between numerical experiments with turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat on and off in the WRF model was used. It was observed through the experiments that the sea-air interaction (turbulent heat flows) contributed to the deepening of the cyclone, leading it to an explosive state, because when the flows were turned off, the cyclone lost its status as a bomb. The cyclone directly influenced the formation of a cold front, which in turn led to the development of a prefrontal squall line, responsible for the adverse conditions in the state of Santa Catarina. While the satellite images did not show the squall line located ahead of the cold front in the cyclone wave due to its resolution, the radar reflectivity data clearly represented the
    propagation of the squall line over southern Brazil.

8
  • RAQUEL GONÇALVES PEREIRA
  • IMPACT OF THE MICROPHYSICS OF STORMS ON THE PHYSICAL AND ELECTRICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF LIGHTNING

  • Advisor : ENRIQUE VIEIRA MATTOS
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • ENRIQUE VIEIRA MATTOS
  • IZABELLY CARVALHO DA COSTA
  • MICHELLE SIMOES REBOITA
  • THIAGO SOUZA BISCARO
  • Data: Mar 21, 2023


  • Show Abstract
  • Brazil has a higher annual (approximately 96 million) incidence of lightning, making the energy, telecommunication sectors and the Brazilian population highly susceptible to the impacts of this phenomenon. The study of lightning and the properties of storm clouds is strategic and of fundamental importance to support the development and improvement of immediate weather forecasting tools. However, there is still a gap in understanding how the microphysical properties of storm clouds impact lightning characteristics (such as type, polarity, size and duration). widely used over the last few decades. In this context, the general objective of the present study is to evaluate the impact of the microphysics of storms on the physical and electrical characteristics of lightning. The storms that are the focus of this research are those that occurred in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo (RMSP) between November 2011 and March 2012, which were obtained during the CHUVA-Vale do Paraíba campaign. In the first stage of the work, Very Higher Frequency (VHF) sources from the São Paulo Lightning Mapper Array (SPLMA) network and return discharges from the Brazilian Atmospheric Discharge Detection Network (BrasilDAT) were used. With this database, the diurnal cycle of lightning properties was evaluated. The results showed that the highest amount of lightning occurs in the afternoon, approximately from 2 pm to 5 pm local time. Although the frequency of lightning strikes is higher in the afternoon, shorter lightning strikes predominate in this period. It was also observed that the period of the day with the highest occurrence of lightning does not coincide with the period of the day that presents the highest current peaks, indicating that storms caused by late afternoon thermodynamic instability involve less intense lightning in terms of electrical currents. In the second and third stages of the work, the relationship between the microphysical properties and the physical and electrical properties of lightning was examined. Both the duration and the length of the lightning flashes showed a positive relationship with the Eco Top variable of 45 dBZ, that is, the greater the duration/length are large hydrometeors found at greater heights. On the other hand, the area of the lightning showed a higher correlation with the microphysical variables crystal volume and graupel; while the amount of lightning sources was better correlated with the Waldvogel Height. In addition, intracloud and cloud-to-ground lightning are well correlated with Vertically Integrated Ice. In lifecycle terms, storms begin to flash in phase 1 (initiation) of their lifecycle, and increase until they reach their peak in the phase between initiation and maturation. A similar behavior occurred in relation to the number of sources, area and duration of lightning, which increase since the beginning of the storm and reach their maximum in phase 2. After the peak in phase 2 (intermediate time between the first radar echo and maturation), the variables mentioned above decreased during their life cycle until their dissipation. On the other hand, the peak current variable of the BrasilDAT network reached its peak in phase 3 (maturation). Also analyzed in greater detail was a case study of two storms, one with a few lightning strikes and the other with a lot of lightning. This project deepened the knowledge about the impact of microphysics on the properties of lightning and opened opportunities for the improvement of weather forecast models, and as a consequence, it may provide the minimization of damages linked to the negative effects of these storms.

9
  • MARIA PAULA RIBEIRO DE SOUZA
  • CONSIDERATION OF RISKS IN THE ASSESSMENT OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF MINING DAMS IN MINAS GERAIS

  • Advisor : MARIA RITA RAIMUNDO E ALMEIDA
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • ANNE CAROLINE MALVESTIO
  • FERNANDA VERONEZ
  • MARIA RITA RAIMUNDO E ALMEIDA
  • RAFAEL SILVA CAPAZ
  • Data: Apr 27, 2023


  • Show Abstract
  • The Environmental Licensing and the Environmental Impact Assessment are instruments of environmental policy that complement each other, and are useful for controlling the development of enterprises or activities that may cause an impact on the environment. Mining activities have an economic importance, but, on the other hand, they cause a significant impact on the environment, as well as on the surrounding community. The dams, which are used for the final disposal of tailings, are the focus of concern and risk, as they can cause irreversible damage if they break, taking as an example the cases that occurred in the state of Minas Gerais, in the years 2015 and 2019, with the ruptures of the dams in Mariana and Brumadinho, respectively. In order for these disasters to be avoided or to have less impact on society, it is important that during the Licensing and Environmental Impact Assessment decision process, the Risk Assessment (RA) is applied to the project to be installed. The associated risk must be an important factor for the analysis of the environmental viability of the activity. Thus, the objective of the present work is to analyze whether the normative changes brought in 2016 brought about changes in the incorporation of risk assessment in the EIA of mining dams in the state of Minas Gerais. For this purpose, Environmental Licensing processes were selected, supported by an Environmental Impact Study of mining dams. The identification of processes occurred through research on the websites of: Consultation of Environmental Licensing Process Decisions, Consultation and Request for Public Hearing and the Integrated Environmental Information System of the state of Minas Gerais. Thus, 25 Licensing processes were analyzed, between 2004 and 2022, which were available: the Environmental Impact Study and the Single or Technical Opinions, being analyzed as to how the risks were treated in the study and in the decision-making for the issuance of the prior license. An analysis of the perspective of before and after the implementation of State Law nº 21.972/2016 was also considered, which brings the requirement of Emergency Action Plans, Contingency and Risk Communication for the Environmental Licensing of undertakings or activities that may put in serious risk human lives or the environment. In the documents, a general search was carried out using keywords that referred to the theme of risk and the possible studies developed. Of the processes, 20 correspond to before the enactment of the law and five are post-enactment of the law. In the processes analyzed, two presented the Risk Analysis, four presented the PAE, three presented the Contingency Plan and no process presented the Risk Communication Plan. The results allow us to infer that the edition of State Law nº 21.972/2016 did not bring significant changes to the consideration of risk, since RA and plans were found in greater quantity for processes prior to the edition of the law. In general, it can be concluded that the risks of mining dams in Minas Gerais are accepted, without any assessment and regardless of their classification level, leaving only the option of being managed later.

10
  • ANDRÉ SHINDI HARTILEK OIZUMI
  • The Environmental Impact Assessment as a tool to control climate change: the case of federal licensing of thermoelectric power plants in Brazil

  • Advisor : MARIA RITA RAIMUNDO E ALMEIDA
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • AMARILIS LUCIA CASTELI FIGUEIREDO GALLARDO
  • FERNANDA VERONEZ
  • MARIA RITA RAIMUNDO E ALMEIDA
  • VANESSA SILVEIRA BARRETO CARVALHO
  • Data: May 30, 2023


  • Show Abstract
  • Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are the main cause of the increase in global atmospheric temperature, one of the changes in climate. The Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Environmental Licensing (EL) processes play important roles in controlling negative impacts on the environment during the decision-making process on the environmental viability of these projects. Brazilian legislation relies on Normative Instruction (IN) No. 12/2010 of the Brazilian Institute of the Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (Ibama), which determines that the federal EL of GHG emitting enterprises must contemplate mitigating measures for these emissions. Among the projects submitted to the EL process, the Thermoelectric Plants (UTEs) are projects that make up the Brazilian electric matrix and are capable of emitting GHGs in the power generation process and, therefore, must consider the measures to control GHG emissions. Therefore, the objective of this study is to evaluate how UTE projects, licensed with support from the EIA and Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) after 2010, consider the control of GHG emissions and their relationship with climate change. To this end, the analysis of the eight EIS presented for the EIA and LA process of UTEs, as of 2010, available in the Ibama database, was carried out. Initially, an adaptation to the scope of this work of the criteria established by Lee and Colley (1992) was used as a way to facilitate the identification of information on how EIS treat GHG emissions and climate change. With the information then identified, the EIS were classified into five groups, organized from best to worst case, and a subsequent analysis of what was found following four points of reflection, one regarding the methodology used in the quantification of GHG emissions of the project, one regarding the measures presented in order to control its GHG emissions, one on the climate impacts identified and the last on how the relationship between the GHG emissions of the enterprise and the impacts on the climate that were identified was established. The results show that there is a similarity with studies previously conducted in an international context, with a low incidence of the evaluation of GHG emissions from enterprises and their contribution to climate change. Only one of the eight EIS presented the description of a climate-related environmental impact due to GHG emissions and, in addition, two other cases did not provide information throughout their text on this topic. It was observed that half of the studies performed only the quantification of GHG emissions without relating them to climate change or even to the reduction targets assumed by Brazil in the Paris Agreement. The legislation that deliberates on such aspects was shown to lack clearer definitions and guidelines, and points of improvement to the EIA and LA process in Brazil were discussed. It was concluded, therefore, that there is a need for a more concise legislation that allows the environmental studies presented in the EIA and LA process to carry out the appropriate assessment regarding the GHG emissions of the enterprises, since these emissions must be evaluated for their cumulativity and effects on the climate

11
  • ADRIÉLE MARIA DE CÁSSIA CRISPIM
  • ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY STUDY FOR THE GENERATION OF HYDROGEN FROM THE REFORMING OF BIOGAS FROM THE CO-DIGESTION OF SOLID URBAN WASTE AND SLUDGE FROM AN EFFLUENT TREATMENT PLANT FOR THE STATE OF MINAS GERAIS

  • Advisor : REGINA MAMBELI BARROS
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • ANTONIO CARLOS BARKETT BOTAN
  • GERALDO LUCIO TIAGO FILHO
  • IVAN FELIPE SILVA DOS SANTOS
  • REGINA MAMBELI BARROS
  • Data: Jun 20, 2023


  • Show Abstract
  • Obtaining H2 from processes with low carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions has been of great interest in order to reduce environmental impacts. The use of biogas to replace fossil sources such as natural gas has been a promising alternative for the clean production of hydrogen (H2), which can be used in the energy and industrial sectors. The aim of this study was to assess the economic viability of using the H2 generated by biogas for 28 landfill consortia in the state of Minas Gerais. Two processes were analyzed: steam methane reforming (VSR) and pyrolysis reforming through an economic analysis using the net present value (NPV), levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) and internal rate of return (IRR) methods. The biogas production potential of the ASs was estimated, as well as their respective hydrogen potential. Installation (CAPEX) and operation and maintenance (OPEX) costs were estimated for the biogas purification and H2 production processes. The selling price of H2 as a fuel was estimated for each consortium. The capacity to obtain ammonia from H2 was determined, as well as the levelized cost of ammonia (LCOA). The installed capacity of the consortia analyzed ranged from 12,738.08 to 1,716,651.77 kg H2/year. The LCOH ranged from 9.44 R$/kg to 1,255.83 R$/kg. Comparing the three scenarios, the RMV without CO2 capture is the one that obtained the best economic results, however, this scenario had the greatest potential for CO2 emissions. The novelty of this study involves using biogas to obtain H2, and comparing RMV with pyrolysis. CIDES was the consortium that obtained the best economic results. Processes for reforming CH4 into H2 with zero CO2 emissions were the ones that obtained the highest LCOH values, which makes it uncompetitive with fossil sources and could make the project unviable. There is a need for public policies to encourage the production and use of H2 from biogas.

12
  • MARIANA GOMES CARDOSO DE ABREU
  • Steel industry decarbonization: Environmental performance and hydrogen use potential

  • Advisor : RAFAEL SILVA CAPAZ
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • JOAQUIM EUGENIO ABEL SEABRA
  • MARIA LUIZA GRILLO RENO
  • RAFAEL SILVA CAPAZ
  • Data: Aug 29, 2023


  • Show Abstract
  • Due to the use of coal and the high energy demand, the steel sector represents 30% of the total emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the industrial sector and around 10% of the total emissions from the energy sector. Therefore, the decarbonization of the steel sector involves changes in its processes and the energy transition of all sectors involved. The use of hydrogen (H2) in the context of steelmaking decarbonization implies its role as a reducer and as fuel. Aiming the potential for reducing GHG in steelmaking, considering the use of H2 as a reducer, conventional steel routes were compared under two aspects: environmental performance and current and future potential for the use of H2. First, the carbon footprint was estimated, in a life cycle analysis (LCA) using IPCC method, ECOINVENT data in comparison to GHG protocol, considering 3 scenarios in Brazilian conditions: steelmaking using coke (Scenario 1), steelmaking using charcoal (Scenario 2) and the direct reduction route with gray and green H2 (Scenario 3). Second, trends in the steel sector were discussed based on sectoral and corporate reports from the biggest players. When discussing the results, Scenario 2 resulted in 51% less GHG emissions than Scenario 1. Scenario 3, with gray H2, implied 65% less emissions than Scenario 1 and, with green H2, the result was 89% less. Benefits have been realized in using LCA to calculate carbon footprint. Furthermore, it was possible to identify advantages of the Brazilian context regarding the pioneering use of charcoal in steelmaking and the 80% share of renewable energy in the country's electricity mix. Evaluating the decarbonization plans, 54% cite H2 as a step to be taken to meet the targets, but just 31% mention the investment in direct reduction with H2 reducer. Despite the prospects for decarbonizing the steel industry pointing to disruptive technologies, it is unanimous that the first step should be the best available techniques for existing scenarios, the energy efficiency, the preference for renewable energies and incentives for research and technology.

13
  • CIRO DE SOUZA CARDOSO RIBEIRO
  • ASSOCIATION BETWEEN WEATHER VARIATIONS AND PRESENTEEISM AMONG HIGHER EDUCATION TEACHERS

  • Advisor : MARCELO DE PAULA CORREA
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • RENATA DA SILVA CARDOSO ROCHA TAVARES
  • DAVIDSON PASSOS MENDES
  • JORGE MUNIZ JUNIOR
  • LUIZ FELIPE SILVA
  • MARCELO DE PAULA CORREA
  • Data: Aug 29, 2023


  • Show Abstract
  • Work occupies a significant part of the population's daily life, therefore being an important factor in defining the quality of life and health of individuals. In parallel, every individual is subject to weather and climate variations, and this interaction also influences these issues and has important associations with collective health. The phenomenon known as presenteeism-illness (P-D), where a person goes to work while being or feeling sick, has been gaining attention in research since the 1990s. Studies on P-D aim to understand how going to work while being unwell can affect productivity in the company and even worsen the worker's clinical condition. Such outcomes, both in physiology and mental health, may be related to mood changes, affecting the disposition to perform daily tasks. These conditions can be more severe in individuals who are more sensitive to meteorological variations, known as weather-sensitive individuals, or among those who develop pathologies when there is an abrupt change in weather, known as meteoropathies (MTP). This research was conducted in an exploratory manner, with 520 university professors from 19 states and the federal district, with the objective of analyzing the association between meteorological variations and presenteeism in teaching activities. The relationship between the incidence of presenteeism, climate sensitivity, and the participants' sociodemographic profile was also examined, as well as the the association between the level of meteorosensitivity (MTS) and the occurrence of P-D. To achieve the objectives, a questionnaire was used to gather sociodemographic data, health and lifestyle information, and the Stanford Presentism Scale and Meteo-Questionnaire instruments. 460 participants (88.5%) reported having gone to work while ill in the past 12 months, and among them, 292 (56.1%) had a score below 18 on the SPS-6, which is considered low labor quality due to health issues. The overall questionnaire score was 13.3 (SD = 5.5), Avoided Distraction 6.7 (SD = 3.6), and Completed Work 9.3 (SD = 3.8). In general, the sample shows a decrease in performance in their work activities due to health problems. The most prevalent health problems related to presenteeism in the sample were: allergies, musculoskeletal pain, and excessive stress. There were 151 individuals (f = 29%) with high weather sensitivity, and 85 (f = 16.3%) showed indications of meteoropathies. For males, the average score for questions about weather sensitivity was
    7
    4.5 (SD = 3.3) and the average score for meteoropathies was 4.4 (SD = 3.5). For females, the average score for weather sensitivity was 6.2 (SD = 3.4), and the average score for indications of meteoropathies was 6.4 (SD = 3.1). The most common symptoms related to meteorological variations include: excessive appetite, fatigue, difficulty concentrating, anxiety, headaches, excessive drowsiness, irritability, nervousness, and general aches and pains. To analyze the association between meteorological variations and presenteeism, the technique of unconditional multiple logistic regression was employed. The first, more adjusted multiple model for the variable of P-D occurrence contains the following explanatory variables: Weather sensitivity (OR = 1.27), Absenteeism (OR = 3.59), physical activity (OR = 0.44) and being employed in a private institution (OR = 0.52). The second, more adjusted multiple model contains the explanatory variables: Weather sensitivity (OR = 1.25), Absenteeism (OR = 3.23), Gender (OR = 1.88), physical activity (OR = 0.44). The results indicate how sensitivity to meteorological variations can affect the population's health, showing that increased levels of MTS are associated with an increase in P-D.

Thesis
1
  • ALEX TAKEO YASUMURA LIMA SILVA
  • Application of Multilayer Neural Networks Associated with Genetic Algorithms Applied to the Operation of Water Distribution Networks with a View to Hydroenergetic Efficiency in Smart Cities.

  • Advisor : FERNANDO DAS GRACAS BRAGA DA SILVA
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • ALEXANDRE KEPLER SOARES
  • BENEDITO CLAUDIO DA SILVA
  • FERNANDO DAS GRACAS BRAGA DA SILVA
  • IVAN FELIPE SILVA DOS SANTOS
  • JOSE ANTONIO TOSTA DOS REIS
  • Data: Feb 15, 2023


  • Show Abstract
  • The scarcity of natural resources, especially water and energy, put the population at risk of water supply. Therefore, they become necessary procedures to guarantee the optimal operation of a water distribution network. The use of optimization techniques such as genetic algorithms guarantees the optimal operation of the network, however, just finding the optimal points is not enough, since demand oscillations affect fluctuations in those presented, also presenting a learning capacity that guarantees the adaptability of the network. distribution of water according to demand, meeting the concept of smart cities. Thus, to give the water distribution network this learning capability, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) of the “perceptron” type of a hidden layer were used, one of which is simple to act only at a demand point, predicting the values of the operational parameters (RNF, valves and pumps), as a proof of concept and then a more advanced ANN was developed, with seven hidden classes, in order to predict the operational specifications for the last 72 hours. The Water Distribution Networks used were two theoretical networks with 13 nodes, 2 Fixed Level Reservoirs (RNF), 2 pumps and 3 valves, varying only the mesh position. For both distribution networks, the predictions reached a good result in most points based on Norma NBR 12218/2017. As a conclusion, Artificial Neural Networks are proven to have a good capacity to predict operation when applied to water distribution networks due to their inherent complexity, having the potential for better results with future adjustments.

2
  • ALEX TAKEO YASUMURA LIMA SILVA
  • Application of Multilayer Neural Networks Associated with Genetic Algorithms Applied to the Operation of Water Distribution Networks with a View to Hydroenergetic Efficiency in Smart Cities.

  • Advisor : FERNANDO DAS GRACAS BRAGA DA SILVA
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • ALEXANDRE KEPLER SOARES
  • BENEDITO CLAUDIO DA SILVA
  • FERNANDO DAS GRACAS BRAGA DA SILVA
  • IVAN FELIPE SILVA DOS SANTOS
  • JOSE ANTONIO TOSTA DOS REIS
  • Data: Feb 15, 2023


  • Show Abstract
  • The scarcity of natural resources, especially water and energy, put the population at risk of water supply. Therefore, they become necessary procedures to guarantee the optimal operation of a water distribution network. The use of optimization techniques such as genetic algorithms guarantees the optimal operation of the network, however, just finding the optimal points is not enough, since demand oscillations affect fluctuations in those presented, also presenting a learning capacity that guarantees the adaptability of the network. distribution of water according to demand, meeting the concept of smart cities. Thus, to give the water distribution network this learning capability, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) of the “perceptron” type of a hidden layer were used, one of which is simple to act only at a demand point, predicting the values of the operational parameters (RNF, valves and pumps), as a proof of concept and then a more advanced ANN was developed, with seven hidden classes, in order to predict the operational specifications for the last 72 hours. The Water Distribution Networks used were two theoretical networks with 13 nodes, 2 Fixed Level Reservoirs (RNF), 2 pumps and 3 valves, varying only the mesh position. For both distribution networks, the predictions reached a good result in most points based on Norma NBR 12218/2017. As a conclusion, Artificial Neural Networks are proven to have a good capacity to predict operation when applied to water distribution networks due to their inherent complexity, having the potential for better results with future adjustments.

3
  • FLAVIO FERREIRA FREITAS
  • Analysis of policies for distributed generation of electricity from biogas from Urban Solid Waste in Brazil.

  • Advisor : GERALDO LUCIO TIAGO FILHO
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • GERALDO LUCIO TIAGO FILHO
  • IVAN FELIPE SILVA DOS SANTOS
  • MARIA CLAUDIA COSTA DE OLIVEIRA BOTAN
  • REGINA MAMBELI BARROS
  • RUBENILDO VIEIRA ANDRADE
  • VALDIR SCHALCH
  • Data: Feb 28, 2023


  • Show Abstract
  • Distributed Generation (GD) in Brazil was a milestone for the Brazilian electricity matrix, as it allowed the generation of electricity to the National Interconnected System (SIN) from small renewable energy sources or qualified cogeneration, such as: hydroelectric power plants (CGH ), photovoltaic solar (UFV), wind power (EOL) and thermal power plants (UTEs). Within the UTEs, include urban solid waste plants, the focus of the research. The main objective of this thesis is to analyze the economically viable energy potential of biogas from Urban Solid Waste (MSW), using the rules and regulations of Distributed Generation (DG) as a parameter. In addition, alternatives and strategies are sought that make this generation feasible for small and medium-sized Brazilian municipalities with the adoption of national and international policies. Initially, electricity generation from MSW was taken as a source of study from the perspective of the New Distributed Generation Framework, the Legal Framework for Distributed Microgeneration and Minigeneration and the Electricity Compensation System (SCEE), supported by the Law Ordinary No. 14,300/2022. Subsequently, it was found that the minimum viable population, considering the New Landmark of the DG, was 80,000 inhabitants. Next, it was evaluated how policies such as ICMS Exemption, interest rate reduction and the creation of tradable green certificates can directly impact the viability of projects. Of all the proposed scenarios, the creation of green certificates (a scenario called the Belgium Case) was the one that brought the most advantages from an economic point of view. Then, the current market for electricity generation from MSW for municipalities with populations above 80,000 inhabitants was studied. In this study, it was found that the average viable potential is approximately 300 MW of installed power and 2 TWh of electricity produced, which represents 2% of the distributed generation potential currently installed in the country (15,000 MW). Although it seems small, this use is of vital importance for the country, as it reduces an environmental liability that is the illegal and inappropriate disposal of waste in dumps and controlled landfills, and sustainably produces electricity generation from this residue. Finally, it was noticed that, despite the exponential growth of DG in Brazil, leveraged by photovoltaics, there is still a lack of public policies and incentives for electricity generation from MSW biogas.

4
  • ANA LETÍCIA CAMPOS YAMAMOTO
  • Global projections of UV radiation in the 21st century: aerosols and clouds effects

  • Advisor : MARCELO DE PAULA CORREA
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • EMICO OKUNO
  • ARTEMIO PLANA FATTORI
  • ENRIQUE VIEIRA MATTOS
  • MARCELO DE PAULA CORREA
  • MARCIA AKEMI YAMASOE
  • ROGER RODRIGUES TORRES
  • SAMIA REGINA GARCIA CALHEIROS
  • Data: Mar 31, 2023


  • Show Abstract
  • Ozone, aerosols, and clouds influence the ultraviolet radiation (UVR) that reaches the earth’s surface. This study aims to evaluate UVR throughout the 21st century considering the total ozone content (TOC), the total cloud cover (TCC), and the aerosol optical depth at 550 nm (AOD550). For that, I first evaluated current climate (1980 - 2014) simulations provided by six Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) by contrasting them with the fifth generation of European Reanalysis (ERA5) and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). For future projections, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs; SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) and four time-slices throughout the century (2021 - 2040, 2041 - 2060, 2061 - 2080 and 2081 - 2100) were considered. I used the UVBoost estimator to calculate UV irradiance. Then, the Ultraviolet Index (UVI) at solar noon, daily doses, and exposure times for erythema (Dery and tery) and vitamin D synthesis (DvitD and tvitD) for phototype III were computed. The cloud attenuation factor (f_C) was used to analyze the cloud cover impact on UVR projections. As expected, the multi-model mean ensemble from six ESMs showed smaller biases and root-mean-square errors (RMSE) which indicated that the simulations are close to the reanalysis data. For TOC, pronounced increases were projected at mid and high latitudes, towards the end of the century, and under higher radiative forcing scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). Over Antarctica, increases of up to 30.0% projected for 2081 - 2100 indicate ozone recovery. On the other hand, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions impact the signal of change in the tropical region, with decreases (up to 4.0%) under SSP1-2.6 and increases (up to 7.0%) under SSP3-7.0. Regarding TCC, increases over the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean in all SSPs, with maximum values ~27.0% (in the long-term; 2081 - 2100), are related to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). By contrast, the TCC decline in North Africa (up to 21.0%) and South America (up to 16.0%) are consistent with the intensification of subtropical anticyclones. For AOD550, increases of up to 28.0% (SSP3-7.0) and 99.0% (SSP5-8.5) were projected in India, Central, and East Africa at the end of the century (2081 - 2100). On the other hand, decreases in North America, Europe, and China over the century may be due to the air quality policies and pollutant emissions control, mainly under SSP1-2.6. In December, UVI, Dery, and DvitD projected changes were pronounced at mid and high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), towards the end of the century and under higher radiative forcing scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). In South America, Australia, and southern Africa, 10 to 20 minutes of exposure at solar noon can induce erythema in phototype III. In contrast, there is no UVR sufficient for vitamin D synthesis at solar noon throughout the century in the United States, Canada, Russia, and Europe. In June, despite the discrepancy in the sign of the projected change between the SSPs, the UVI and Dery were high (UVI ≥ 11; Dery ~ 6.0 kJ m-2) in areas with high population density such as China, India, the Middle East, and the United States. On the other hand, there is no vitamin D synthesis over the century for the scenarios in southern Argentina, southern Chile, and Antarctica. Cloud cover impacts UVI and DvitD more strongly. However, spatial patterns throughout the century have not changed. TCC attenuation can reduce up to 3.5 UVI under scenarios SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 in South America and part of Central America but still indicate high levels (UVI between 8 and 10). Furthermore, in December and under SSP1-2.6, there were projected attenuations between 1.5 and 1.8 kJ m-2 for Dery and between 2.5 and 3.0 kJ m-2 for DvitD. The results showed that climate change can significantly impact UVR throughout the 21st century and affect human health.

5
  • ANA FLAVIA MARTINS MONTEIRO
  • Climate projections of the main variables that influence evapotranspiration in South America: a multi-model assessment

  • Advisor : FABRINA BOLZAN MARTINS
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • FABRINA BOLZAN MARTINS
  • GUSTAVO BASTOS LYRA
  • MARCEL CARVALHO ABREU
  • MARCELO DE PAULA CORREA
  • ROGER RODRIGUES TORRES
  • SAMIA REGINA GARCIA CALHEIROS
  • Data: Jun 16, 2023


  • Show Abstract
  • Climate change is the greatest challenge due to threats in the natural and social systems. For adaptation actions planning to be effective, it is necessary to analyze the impacts on climate variables, especially in potentially vulnerable regions, such as South America. Additionally, as a new generation of general circulation models (GCMs) becomes available, it is mandatory to reevaluate the performance and reliability of this new set in representing the behavior of the climate system. Therefore, the present study analyzed and compared simulations and projections of climate change over South America using ten GCMs from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, using fifth and sixth phases (CMIP5 and CMIP6). The projections (PF; 2081-2100) were compared to the present period (PP; 1986-2005), for four radiative forcing scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways) and SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways). Furthermore, this study analyzed space-time trends and the contribution rate of climate variables that influence evapotranspiration in South America, considering the PP and the SSP5-8.5 future scenario of CMIP6. For this, a set of daily data of mean air temperature at 2 m above the surface (Tmean), relative air humidity (RH), global solar radiation (Rs), soil moisture at 10 cm from the surface (SM) and precipitation (P) was used of ten GCMs from both sets of CMIP. To obtain the daily evapotranspiration (ET) the Turc method was used. In addition, the aforementioned variables were validated with data from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and ERA5 reanalysis. The CMIP6 GCMs exhibited better performance compared to the CMIP5 GCMs in representing the analyzed climate variables over South America, especially for Tmean and ET. The GCMs projected a positive trend in ET, which was accompanied by an integrated effect of a positive trend in Tmean and Rs, and a negative trend in RH, SM and P, which indicated drier climate conditions for the end of the 21st century mainly in the Amazon region, north of Bolivia and southern Peru. Despite the spatial distribution of the contribution rate having differences in regional patterns, the dominant climate variable that contributed to the positive trend of ET was Tmean, mainly for the future period, indicating that this contribution was not weakened by the contribution of other climate variables. In general, these results help in evaluating the variables that influence the change in ET in South America.

6
  • JOHNSON HERLICH ROSLEE MENSAH
  • Study of the Insertion of Renewable Sources in the Energy Transition of the Republic of Benin with a view to its Sustainable Development

  • Advisor : GERALDO LUCIO TIAGO FILHO
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • BANDIRI SABI YARI MÖISE
  • GERALDO LUCIO TIAGO FILHO
  • IVAN FELIPE SILVA DOS SANTOS
  • OSVALDO RONALD SAAVEDRA MENDEZ
  • REGINA MAMBELI BARROS
  • Data: Dec 20, 2023


  • Show Abstract
  • Energy generation is an important factor in economic development, combating poverty and ensuring a good quality of life for the population of a nation, which is a major challenge for less developed countries such as the Republic of Benin, country located in West Africa. Thus, the installation of hydroelectric plants, photovoltaic solar plants and biomass plants could help mitigate the energy crises that the country faces and reduce its dependence on energy imports. In this context, the objective of this work is to propose and evaluate different energy planning scenarios in Benin, with a view to inserting renewable energy sources (RES), improving the current living conditions of the population, and minimizing energy imports. To achieve this objective, data analysis and an assessment of the energy potential of each renewable source (solar, wind, biomass and hydroelectric) available were carried out. Finally, three different scenarios were created (reference, moderate and optimistic) with the objective of reducing the energy deficit in the long-term using the LEAP (Low Emissions Analysis Platform) program for the period from 2020 to 2050. The results of this study showed that for the “REF” reference scenario, final energy demand is expected to grow by around 1.5% until 2050. Electricity production should, for the most part, be carried out by thermal energy sources and CO2 emissions should increase by 0.5%. to 1.1 million metric tons of CO2eq in the residential sector. Regarding the optimistic “OPT” scenario, final energy demand will increase by around 3.8% compared to the base year value (2020). The share of RES is expected to increase to around 78% of the total installed generation capacity in 2050 and will reduce electricity imports to zero, which were 13.2 PJ and 7.1 PJ, respectively, in the REF and MOD scenarios, representing 81.5% and 20.5% of national electricity demand. These results allowed discussions on alternatives for Benin's energy sectors and encourage the application of energy efficiency measures in each sector of activity to reduce energy consumption in addition to mitigating the effects of GHG emissions. In short, effective energy policy measures are needed to support a sustainable energy transition in Benin.

2022
Dissertations
1
  • DÉBORA LUISA SILVA TEIXEIRA
  • Socio-environmental vulnerability to floods: a case study of a sub-basin in southern Minas Gerais

  • Advisor : NIVEA ADRIANA DIAS PONS
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • LUIZ TADEU DA SILVA
  • BENEDITO CLAUDIO DA SILVA
  • NIVEA ADRIANA DIAS PONS
  • SAMARA CALCADO DE AZEVEDO
  • Data: Feb 11, 2022


  • Show Abstract
  • Due to the combination of extreme precipitation and/or rainfall for consecutive days in landscapes dominated by plains and narrow valley bottoms, large areas of the Brazil southeast and south regions are naturally susceptible to flooding. The Ribeirão José Pereira sub-basin, located in the south of Minas Gerais, more specifically in the municipality of Itajubá-MG, is one of these areas, suffering from floods aggravated by interventions in the natural course of the stream. In a great lack information context about the vulnerability of the population exposed to risk, the present work aims to analyze this aspect through the development and spatialization of a socio-environmental vulnerability index for the sub-basin studied. The methodological procedures consisted of: literature review and georeferenced data collection; thematic maps elaboration of the variables, using geoprocessing; influence evaluation of flood conditioning factors on flood susceptibility, applying the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) method; influence evaluation of social, economic and demographic indicators on social vulnerability, through the AHP method; variables aggregation and preparation of final maps; and results analysis. The final socio-environmental vulnerability map to floods showed that 87.46% of the sub-basin has very low/low vulnerability, 10.09% medium vulnerability and 2.48% high/very high vulnerability. The results showed concentration of high vulnerability areas in the urban perimeter, where there is a high percentage of soil sealing and the highest population density indices. The study of the sub-basin social indicators, in turn, showed a trend towards rural areas with high social vulnerability, while it evidenced the existing social differences in the urban perimeter of the sub-basin. It is understood, therefore, that the developed index can provide information at the local and regional level of the populations that need more attention from the public authorities, either because they are in a socioeconomic vulnerability situation, or because they present a high degree of exposure to flood risks.

2
  • MATHEUS DAVID GUIMARÃES BARBEDO
  • Calibration studies of water distribution networks using the coupling of R and Epanet software

  • Advisor : FERNANDO DAS GRACAS BRAGA DA SILVA
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • BENEDITO CLAUDIO DA SILVA
  • FERNANDO DAS GRACAS BRAGA DA SILVA
  • JOSE EDUARDO ALAMY FILHO
  • Data: Feb 11, 2022


  • Show Abstract
  • In view of the indisputable demand for water resources, in terms of quality and quantity increasingly increasing in urban centers, water supply systems, especially such as water networks, play an important role in terms of urban infrastructure. Predicting the behavior of hydraulic structures using modeling and simulation is important for managers of different types, both public and private. Over the years, constant physical and operational changes occur in networks, such as changes in the physical roughness of pipelines, requiring dynamic adjustments as well as mathematical models to predict their hydraulic behavior in order to modify and improve their parameters. Inverse calibration of the water distribution network is the process of adjusting non-measurable parameters based on parameter measurements such as pressure and flow. There are methodologies for this source, however there is no knowledge of calibration research using the EPANET software coupled to the R, exploring the hydraulic evaluation resources of the first and a data analysis of the second. Thus, the objective of the present work was to evaluate the original potential of using these two tools for a calibration adjustment. To achieve this objective, the methodology was to apply this coupling in a theoretical network developed for the study. The results proved to be good, having a good fit between the reference values considered measured and those generated by the simulation. It is concluded that there is potential to use this tool for new studies and, in the future, for applications in real water supply networks.

3
  • SARA TALITA SALES SILVA
  • Technical and Economic Evaluation of the Use of Biomethane from a Sanitary Landfill in the Southeast Region of Brazil for Vehicle Supply

  • Advisor : REGINA MAMBELI BARROS
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • GERALDO LUCIO TIAGO FILHO
  • IVAN FELIPE SILVA DOS SANTOS
  • MARIA CLAUDIA COSTA DE OLIVEIRA BOTAN
  • REGINA MAMBELI BARROS
  • Data: Mar 3, 2022


  • Show Abstract
  • Brazil has an underused potential for the generation of biogas and biomethane. Biogas can be
    used to generate electricity, for heating or, when purified at legislation’s appropriate levels
    giving rise to biomethane, as a fuel for vehicle supply. Replacing fossil fuels with this type of
    fuel considerably reduces greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Scientific research in this area are
    essential for the development and expansion of the utilization of this fuel in the country in face
    of the contributions it brings to environmental quality and to the delay of global warming and
    climate change, adding also the economic need to find substitute sources for the non-renewable
    ones. The use of biogas for electricity generation is a more widespread practice in Brazil,
    however, the use of biomethane as vehicular fuel is a more recent practice and, therefore, less
    studied. This research proposed to analyze the economic viability of the use of biomethane
    produced from consortia of existing sanitary landfills in the Southeast Region of Brazil,
    considering its use as vehicular fuel. A total of 508 cities distributed in 50 consortia of sanitary
    landfills in the States of São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo and Rio de Janeiro were
    analyzed. The economic viability was verified using the Net Present Value (NPV) and the
    Internal Rate of Return (IRR). For comparison purposes, two different forms of calculation
    were used for the pricing of biomethane sales: the first one considered direct sales to gas
    stations, while the second considered contract sales to non-thermal markets. For the first pricing
    methodology, of the 50 consortia studied, seven did not present economic viability for the
    commercialization of vehicular biomethane. Consortia with an installed capacity of less than
    5,500 m³/day were those economically unviable. The relationship between the installed capacity
    and NPV found is of the linear type, that is, the greater the installed capacity is, the greater the
    NPV of the projects. However, the IRR of the projects, starting from a CAPEX (Capital
    Expenditure) of R$ 20 million, remains constant, around 35%, regardless of the increase in
    CAPEX As for the second pricing methodology, 14 of the consortia did not show economic
    viability for this purpose, the IRR for this pricing remained constant from a CAPEX of R$ 30
    million, around 20%. There was also a reduction in GHG, over the 20 years adopted in this
    research, with the replacement of the volume of biomethane produced by the landfill consortia
    for diesel oil: the emission of 29.14 trillion tons of CO2eq is avoided.

4
  • PAOLA DO NASCIMENTO SILVA
  • ASSESSMENT OF ESTIMATED PRECIPITATION BY GPM SATELLITE FOR THE SAPUCAÍ RIVER HYDROGRAPHIC BASIN

  • Advisor : BENEDITO CLAUDIO DA SILVA
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • BENEDITO CLAUDIO DA SILVA
  • JOÃO BOSCO COURA DOS REIS
  • VANESSA SILVEIRA BARRETO CARVALHO
  • Data: Mar 4, 2022


  • Show Abstract
  • In Brazil, the number of rainfall stations on the surface is still low and is not enough to represent the spatio-temporal variability of rainfall throughout the territory. Therefore, a good option to overcome this lack of data is the use of satellite precipitation estimates. Therefore, this study aimed to validate, through statistical methods, the daily precipitation estimated by the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellite for the Sapucaí River Basin, using four methodologies: point by pixel - original data, without going through no processing; pixel to point – debiased satellite data; pixel by pixel – interpolated station data; average in the area – average in the sub-areas of Alto, Medio and Baixo Sapucaí. The data used in the validation came from rainfall stations of the National Agency for Water and Basic Sanitation (ANA). The results found for the point-to-pixel methodology for the complete series, summer and winter, indicated the existence of a moderate average correlation, with errors varying from magnitude of 3 to 10 mm day-1 and with an average tendency to overestimate the GPM in in relation to ANA data. The same occurred for the pixel-to-point method, where the results were very similar, in addition, a correction in the precipitation frequency was observed through this methodology. The pixel-by-pixel method presented higher statistical results, compared to the previous ones, and even increased the surface data coverage. However, the averaging methodology in the area was the one that obtained the best results: high correlation, coefficient of determination above 60% and lower magnitude of errors. Overall, in both cases the GPM showed an average tendency to overestimate the ANA data, but it proved to be viable for use in studies, mainly as a way to meet the need for data in places without records.

5
  • ULISSES RAAD DA SILVA COELHO
  • Energetic utilization of biogas from the co-digestion of the organic fraction of urban solid waste with lime mud: an economic and environmental assessment

  • Advisor : REGINA MAMBELI BARROS
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • TATIANE TOBIAS DA CRUZ
  • GERALDO LUCIO TIAGO FILHO
  • MARIA LUIZA GRILLO RENO
  • REGINA MAMBELI BARROS
  • RUBENILDO VIEIRA ANDRADE
  • Data: Mar 4, 2022


  • Show Abstract
  • The generation of urban solid waste and its management still represent a problem of relevant dimensions in Brazil. The high presence of organic matter in these wastes can aggravate environmental problems, either by the emission of greenhouse gases, water or soil pollution. At the same time, the pulp and paper industry consumes large amounts of resources and produces important solid waste, including lime mud. By uniting urban and industrial reality, an alternative that has not yet been studied emerges, with which electrical energy is used from biogas from the co-digestion of the organic fraction of urban solid waste with lime mud. This intersection can reduce the environmental impacts associated with the inadequate management and impacts inherent to each of these wastes, providing savings in financial resources for the industry and also contributing to the diversification of the Brazilian energy matrix. To assess the environmental sustainability and economic viability of this alternative, the present work used economic-financial indicators and the life cycle assessment methodology. The results obtained showed a minimum population of 165,200 inhabitants to make a co-digestion proposal feasible. The sensitivity analysis showed that the energy tariff at R$ 0.75, with a payback of 10 years, would provide a population of 185,500 inhabitants for economic viability and attractiveness, with a net present value of R$ 125,552.74, the internal rate of return at 14.71% and a levelized energy cost of 0.55 R$/kWh. Meanwhile, the lime mud life cycle assessment showed that, among the 5 proposed scenarios, co-digestion is significantly advantageous, avoiding environmental impacts especially in 8 of the 18 assessed impact categories, namely freshwater eutrophication, ecotoxicity marine, terrestrial acidification, fossil fuel depletion, freshwater ecotoxicity, climate change, particulate matter formation and marine eutrophication. In addition, digestate contributed significantly to avoided impacts. Thus, the study made it possible to combine economic viability and environmental benefits, in such a way as to structure adequate foundations for a deepening of the proposal and for a rational, sustainable and economically viable use of biogas from the co-digestion of the organic fraction of urban solid waste with lime mud.

6
  • ROBSON BARRETO DOS PASSOS
  • Identification of Low Level Jets in the Furnas/MG Reservoir Region

  • Advisor : ARCILAN TREVENZOLI ASSIREU
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • FRANCIANO SCREMIN PUHALES
  • ARCILAN TREVENZOLI ASSIREU
  • GILBERTO FERNANDO FISCH
  • MICHELLE SIMOES REBOITA
  • Data: Mar 9, 2022


  • Show Abstract
  • Commonly, at the top of the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL), in its nocturnal/stable phase, the formation of a maximum in the vertical wind profile known as Low Level Jet (LLJ) occurs. These events are observed in various parts of the world and have a great influence on activities that depend on weather and climate, such as air transport. Several studies have been carried out to evaluate the mechanisms capable of inducing the formation of LLJs. Among these mechanisms are inertial oscillation, baroclinicity induced by sloping terrain and the presence of synoptic systems. In this study, the occurrence of LLJs in the Furnas reservoir region, located in Minas Gerais, MG, is investigated. In addition, an evaluation of the synoptic conditions on the days of occurrence of the LLJs is made, as well as the response of the surface flow. For that, 10 years of data from the ERA5 reanalysis were used along with data measured in situ during a field campaign and one year of data from an anemometric tower installed on the banks of the Furnas reservoir. The LLJs detection criteria were based on a case study that had already been analyzed in previous studies. LLJs occur mostly in spring, mainly in the months of September and October, between late evening (21 LT) and early morning (8 LT). As for the synoptic characteristics, the LLJs occur predominantly in clear or partially cloudy sky scenarios where there is a ridge penetration (high pressure) over the Southeast or the western edge of the South Atlantic Subtropical High (SASH). The ERA5 data showed a good ability to represent the wind speed, making it possible to identify profiles of LLJs in the period under study. Two numerical simulations were performed with the WRF model, the first with the original topography (control simulation) and the other with the modified topography, removing the sloping relief around the reservoir. With the simulations it was possible to infer about the influence of the sloping relief on the occurrence of LLJs. After analyzing the observational and model data, it is considered the possibility that the LLJs in the Furnas reservoir region are modulated mainly by baroclinicity induced by synoptic systems with potential influence of sloping topography. The decoupling of the top of the PBL with the levels closer to the surface in the day/night transition cannot be neglected, as it provides support for the flow acceleration due to the temperature gradient. The presence of the sloping topography causes a thermal gradient due to differential cooling/heating between valley/mountain, in this case, the available potential energy can contribute to complement the formation of the JBN due to baroclinicity in synoptic scale.

7
  • PAULA SAYEKO SOUZA ODA
  • Municipal Master Plan and Management Plan for Protected Areas: Collaborations in the Objectives of the National Civil Defense and Protection Policy

  • Advisor : DANIELA ROCHA TEIXEIRA RIONDET COSTA
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • DANIELA ROCHA TEIXEIRA RIONDET COSTA
  • DIEGO OLIVEIRA DE SOUZA
  • ENRIQUE VIEIRA MATTOS
  • LUCIANA BOTEZELLI
  • MARIA RITA RAIMUNDO E ALMEIDA
  • Data: Mar 10, 2022


  • Show Abstract
  • Characterized by the breaking of the natural balance of the structure of a community, which sometimes can happen irreversibly, natural disasters have become increasingly present in urban daily life. Random misfortunes, their occurrence qualifies as socio-environmental problems in addition to the mission of public administration that contribute to many becoming risk-generating spaces. In this sense, it is essential to integrate public risk management policies in the territorial planning of cities, in order to guarantee the quality of life of its inhabitants. In Brazil, there is the National Civil Defense and Protection Policy (PNPDEC - Federal Law No. 12,608) established in 2012 with the main objective of reducing disaster risks through prevention, mitigation, preparation, response and recovery actions that interact with how territorial planning policies, urban development, health, environment, climate change, water resources management, geology, infrastructure, education, science and technology. With this, the present study has the general objective to analyze how the management instruments, Master Plan of the city of Petrópolis and Management Plan of the Environmental Protection Area (APA) Petrópolis, can collaborate with the objectives of the PNPDEC. The methodology was developed in 3 stages: I) Identification of occurrences of natural disasters in the city of Petrópolis; II) Adaptation of Bardin's Content Analysis of the Municipal Master Plan, related rules and the Management Plan and III) Adaptation of the SWOT Matrix to the Municipal Master Plan, related rules and to the Management Plan. Based on the disaster database of the National Center for Monitoring and Alerts for Natural Disasters (CEMADEN), between 2016 (January, November and December) and 2021, there were 197 natural disasters, mostly on land, that occurred mainly in the first district of the municipality. In addition, it was observed that the year 2018 stood out as the year with the highest occurrence of the complete years analyzed (2017-2021) the months of January and March are responsible for the highest occurrences. Image Analysis applied as basic definitions with content208 matches cited in no. 3 of the PNPDEC, with prevention (199) and recovery (56) measures being the most recurrent. The same analysis for the Management Plan, found once again with a focus on preventive actions (16). The DEC study, planned measures that despite the recommendation of sectoral policies as mentioned in the NP policy, highlighting the need to monitor the review of such.

8
  • ALINE ARAUJO DE FREITAS
  • Assessing atmospheric and oceanic patterns during drought events in Brazil: the case study of the São Francisco and Paraná basins

  • Advisor : VANESSA SILVEIRA BARRETO CARVALHO
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • ANITA RODRIGUES DE MORAES DRUMOND
  • BENEDITO CLAUDIO DA SILVA
  • MICHELLE SIMOES REBOITA
  • VANESSA SILVEIRA BARRETO CARVALHO
  • Data: Mar 31, 2022


  • Show Abstract
  • In recent years, extreme weather events have occurred with greater frequency, intensity and duration, and are projected to increase in future climate. In Brazil, for the period from 1991 to 2012, the natural disaster that affected the largest number of people are droughts. The São Francisco Hydrographic Basin (BHSF) and the Paraná Hydrographic Region (RHP) are among the main hydrographic basins in Brazil, standing out for the generation of energy and consumption, among other ecosystem services. Therefore, as droughts can trigger both economic and social problems, it is important to identify hydrological drought events in these basins and what anomalous weather patterns are associated with these events. Daily precipitation data from the Gauge-Based Analysis of Global Daily Precipitation (CPC) was used to calculate the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at 1, 6 and 12 month scales in order to identify drought events in BHSF and RHP; this index uses historical rainfall series to quantify rainfall deficits, in which negative values are associated with dry episodes. The 1-month scale reflects short-term conditions and can be associated with meteorological droughts, the 6-month scale SPI can be used to show the dynamics of rainfall over different seasons and, in some cases, droughts on this scale can be associated with anomalies in river flows and reservoir levels, as seen in the 12-month scale, in which long-term rainfall patterns have been represented. The 12-month scale was used to identify hydrological drought episodes along the BHSF and RHP between 1979 and 2021. For these episodes, severity, duration, intensity and peak were obtained, and the SPI-1 and SPI-6 were obtained. analyzed during the longest and most severe drought (identified via SPI-12) to identify periods with anomalously dry conditions in the wet season. Anomalous atmospheric and oceanic patterns associated with this episode were also analyzed using data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA5 Reanalysis. The results revealed that the longest and most severe episode of hydrological drought on the BHSF occurred between 2012 and 2020, while in the RHP of Paraná the event has developed since 2016, still without end until the end of the analyzed period. At BHSF, the anomalous dry conditions observed during the rainy season of this episode were associated with an anomalous high-pressure system acting close to the coast of Southeast Brazil, hindering the formation of precipitating systems. Different large-scale patterns acted during the drought conditions in the RHP in the analyzed periods (2016/2017, 2019/2020 and 2020/2021), but with a common weakening of the low-level jets, making it impossible to transport moisture to the basin. Despite the drought being studied in a regionalized way in the country, the results found in the present study indicate recent drought events affecting several regions of Brazil simultaneously.

9
  • PATRÍCIA MARTINS DOS REIS
  • TERRITORIAL PLANNING AND NOISE: A REGULATORY APPROACH TO NOISE MANAGEMENT

  • Advisor : LUIZ FELIPE SILVA
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • ANA MARIA GIROTTI SPERANDIO
  • DANIELA ROCHA TEIXEIRA RIONDET COSTA
  • DANIELE ORNAGHI SANT'ANNA
  • LUIZ FELIPE SILVA
  • MARIA RACHEL DE ARAUJO RUSSO
  • Data: Jul 6, 2022


  • Show Abstract
  • One of the recurring problems in the urban environment, especially in the large centers of Brazilian capitals, is noise pollution. One of the ways to control and manage noise in cities is through the elaboration of complementary and specific laws that bring guidelines to contain it. The approach of noise management and control tools can also prove to be allied to the rules to mitigate the problem. This work aims to analyze whether the guidelines contained in the norms of Brazilian capitals in the Southeast region are decisive in the control and management of noise in the urban environment and to identify which control tools are being implemented in Brazil and in other countries. Firstly, a documental review of the Master Plans of the norms of the capitals of southeastern Brazil was carried out and later, a systematic review of the literature on the management and control support tools. It was observed that municipalities in southeastern Brazil need to face many challenges to develop guidelines that are effective in controlling and managing noise, as the great difficulty lies in their interpretation and applicability. The municipality of Vitória (ES) was the one that presented the most consistent guidelines for the noise problem. The systematic review of scientific production allowed us to find a series of tools that can serve as a subsidy to municipalities in the construction of a normative structure more consistent with the reality of Brazilian cities, mainly contributing to decision making.

10
  • BRUNO DE CAMPOS
  • Sensitivity of cumulus convection and cloud microphysics parameterization on extreme rainfall events over the Paraiba do Sul River Basin

  • Advisor : VANESSA SILVEIRA BARRETO CARVALHO
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • WALLACE FIGUEIREDO MENEZES
  • ENRIQUE VIEIRA MATTOS
  • MICHELLE SIMOES REBOITA
  • VANESSA SILVEIRA BARRETO CARVALHO
  • Data: Dec 16, 2022


  • Show Abstract
  • The Paraiba do Sul River Basin (PSRB) is frequently affected by extreme rainfall events, especially by weather systems during its rainy season, leading to financial damage and losses of human lives. The Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) is a tool capable of supporting the forecast of natural disasters. However, its limitations and capabilities require understanding and addressing. In those terms, this work aims to investigate the sensitivity of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model on forecasting an extreme rainfall event that affected the Basin in January 2016, causing financial and human losses. Eight high resolution (3-km of maximum horizontal grid spacing) numerical simulations were performed by combining four cloud microphysics (CMP) and two cumulus convection schemes (CC). The simulations were compared against observed rainfall data (weather gauges), satellite-based precipitation estimates, and weather radar data. Results showed that WRF was able to represent the large-scale processes (South Atlantic Convergence Zone), with secondary errors caused by the positioning and intensity of the horizontal moisture convergence fields. Statistically, the simulations captured the correlations between forecasted and observed rain at the gauges, with values above 0.9. However, WRF showed strong dispersion between the experiments (above 50%), with strong tendency of underestimation of accumulated precipitation (by up to 80% at some sites). The vertical fields of radar reflectivity showed satisfactory results, but WRF tended to overestimate cloud depths by up to 2 km. Also, the simulations showed the early suppression of convective activity after the first two days of integration, leading to low rainfall amounts. However, WRF was able to simulate convectively active environments. On the vertical distribution of hydrometeors, the role of CC was indifferent in comparison with the sensitivity from the hydrometeor classes to CMP choices. The sophistication of CMP schemes was crucial to the horizontal and vertical fields. The prognostic of hail in CMP Milbrandt 2-moment and the consideration of advanced warm-rain processes in WDM6 contributed to a more adherent representation of cloud processes below the melting layer, as well as ice particles higher up in the atmosphere. Such representations impact hydrometeors distributions as well as further processes regarding up-/down-drafts. Overall, complexities associated with orography and land-use at the Basin watershed suggest the application of higher horizontal resolution runs to overcome errors from interactions between convection and terrain. This work is a contribution to the development of operational weather forecasts to the PSRB to mitigate natural disasters associated with extreme precipitation.

2021
Dissertations
1
  • GABRIEL WILSON LORENA FLORÊNCIO
  • Climate change in eucalyptus: development models and climate suitability zoning

  • Advisor : FABRINA BOLZAN MARTINS
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • FABRINA BOLZAN MARTINS
  • MARCEL CARVALHO ABREU
  • ROGER RODRIGUES TORRES
  • Data: Feb 19, 2021


  • Show Abstract
  • The climate projections indicate an increase in air temperature and changes in rainfall patterns throughout the Brazilian territory, which may impact the cultivation of forest species. Thus, it becomes important to conduct studies that analyze the potential impacts of climate projections, especially for those economically important, such as eucalyptus. Given these aspects, the aims of this master's thesis were: a) to calibrate and evaluate the development simulation models Phyllochron (PHYL) and Wang and Engel (WE) for the present climate, as well as to identify the possible impacts of projected increases in air temperature on the duration of the seedling phase (SDP) of two species of eucalyptus, considering two scenarios of radioactive forncing (RCP 4.5 e RCP 8.5) and; b) to evaluate the impacts of climate projections in agroclimatic zoning for the main species of eucalyptus cultivated in Brazil, considering the water and thermal limitations of the species for two scenarios of radiative forcing. The two models (PHYL and WE) were able to predict the dynamics of development in two species, with better performance of the WE model. The projected increase in air temperature throughout the 21st century may modify the development rates and SDP of the two species of eucalyptus cultivated in Itajubá, as well as in subtropical climate regions, reducing the development rate, and increasing the permanence of seedlings in forest nurseries. There will be no considerable changes in the adequate areas for eucalyptus cultivation in Brazilian territory for the near future (2021-2050). However, at the end of the 21st century (2071-2100) there may be a reduction from 3% (RCP 4.5) to 7% (RCP 8.5) of totally or adequate areas of eucalyptus cultivation comparead to present climate (1980 – 2005), and the appearance of restricted areas, up to 47%, due to the increase of water deficit in eucalyptus cultivation in the far future.

2
  • BRUNA ANDRELINA SILVA
  • Study of synoptic evolution and heat and vorticity balances in two subtropical cyclones near South America

  • Advisor : MICHELLE SIMOES REBOITA
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • NATÁLIA MACHADO CRESPO
  • MICHELLE SIMOES REBOITA
  • ROGER RODRIGUES TORRES
  • ROSMERI PORFIRIO DA ROCHA
  • Data: Feb 22, 2021


  • Show Abstract
  • While in the South Atlantic Ocean (OAS) there are records of several occurrences of subtropical cyclones, in the Southeast Pacific Ocean (OPS) there is only news in the media since 2015. In order to promote the understanding of the physical processes associated with subtropical cyclones, in this study, expenses are two cyclones: one with pure subtropical genesis, which was Cyclone Guará which occurred in December 2017 at OAS, and another with subtropical transition, which was Cyclone Lexi, which occurred in May 2018 at OPS. In addition, the study aims to define the climatological characteristics in the region of the oceans adjacent to South America in order to indicate the regions favorable to these events. To this end, data from the 1989 to 2019 period of the ERA5 reanalysis are used, which is considered state-of-the-art in terms of reanalysis. One of the main results obtained in the climatological analysis on the Genesis Potential Index (IPG). Although this index indicates regions favorable to tropical cyclogenesis, it also serves as an indicator of favorable conditions for subtropical cyclones, since there are many similarities between these two types of systems. There is potential for the genesis of tropical/subtropical systems in OAS along the Brazilian coast from October to March, however, the signal is most intense between February and March. In the OPS, some factors, in isolation, showed a propensity to cyclogenesis of cyclones with a warm core. However, the IPG's climatology shows little or no favoring the formation of tropical cyclones and CS. In relation to the two cyclones studied, a subtropical transition from Lexi was influenced by the interaction with a cutoff low, which favored an environment with weak vertical wind shear, as it was coupled with the extratropical cyclone on the surface. The subtropical cyclone Guará was formed associated with both dynamic processes, such as horizontal wind shear with cyclonic signal and weak vertical wind shear, and thermodynamic processes, with an impact of turbulent heat fluxes at the sea-air interface. The use of heat balance and vorticity equations contributed to confirm the results.

3
  • MARIA ELISA DINIZ BUCCI
  • NOISE AND URBAN VEGETATION: A STUDY ABOUT ANNOYANCE AND SLEEP QUALITY

  • Advisor : LUIZ FELIPE SILVA
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • ALISSON FLÁVIO BARBIERI
  • DANIELE ORNAGHI SANT'ANNA
  • LUCIANA BOTEZELLI
  • LUIZ FELIPE SILVA
  • Data: Feb 23, 2021


  • Show Abstract
  • The present work aimed to investigate the influence of urban vegetation as a modulator of responses to exposure to urban noise, through the development of three manuscripts. Manuscript 1 sought to investigate the efficiency of urban vegetation in noise exposure. The sound levels and the quantification of the volume of road traffic were surveyed for two sections studied, the BR-459 highway and a road protected by the vegetation corridor. The characterization of the urban vegetation in the corridor was carried out through the floristic composition and intrinsic characteristics of the arboreal individuals, such as size, circumference of the trunk, width of the leaves and the crown. The values between the measured sound levels and those estimated by the prediction model algorithm were compared. The association between the characteristics of arboreal individuals and traffic noise was made using Spearman's ranking. The equivalent sound levels (LAeq) obtained in the field were 73.7 dB(A) and 62.5 dB(A) for the areas adjacent to the highway and the vegetation corridor, respectively. In the same order, according to the model applied, the LAeq values were 77.5 dB(A) for the highway and 68.4 dB(A) for the road protected by vegetation. The biggest difference between the values obtained for the corridor points to a possible attenuation offered by the vegetation. There was a higher prevalence (50.0%), significant, of very disturbed in residents along the highway, when compared to the other area. The circumference of the trunks showed a significant positive association with the sound levels in the stretch. It is suggested to adopt studies with greater depth that exceed the existing limits in these due to some inconclusive results regarding the influence of vegetation. Manuscript 2 investigated the association between exposure to noise from road traffic and annoyance and the influence of urban vegetation in the neighborhoods Avenida, Boa Vista, Porto Velho, Varginha, São Sebastião and Santa Rosa in the municipality of Itajubá/MG. Two instruments were used on the sample of subjects: a structured questionnaire to investigate the perception of annoyance and the presence of urban vegetation in the area and the Mini Sleep Questionnaire (MSQ). The analyzes of the data obtained by applying the questionnaires were carried out through logistic regression. Significant associations were found between the individual being highly annoyed with the noise of road traffic and living near noisy areas, the perception that the noise impairs the quality of sleep; the existence of sleep-related disorders, ethnicity and a high level of education. It’s concluded that, by the instruments used, no association was found regarding the perception of vegetation as a mediator in relation to the reduction of annoyance due to noise exposure. The association between exposure to road traffic noise and sleep quality, mediated by urban vegetation in the same locations as Manuscript 2 was investigated in Manuscript 3. Two instruments were used on the sample of subjects: a structured questionnaire to explore the perception of interference on sleep quality and the urban vegetation present in the area and the MSQ used to characterize disorders related to sleep quality. The analysis of the data obtained by both instruments was also performed by logistic regression. Regarding the perception of interference in the quality of sleep, manifestation of annoyance due to traffic noise, living with a partner and residence time over two years, there was a significant positive association, as for age, negative. Intensity of annoyance, low education, low concentration of vegetation and living alone or even with a person showed a significant positive association with quality of sleep as measured by MSQ. It’s concluded that vegetation is associated with the sleep quality of the sample analyzed only by the MSQ instrument.

4
  • MARIA ALICE MACHADO RODRIGUES
  • Science fiction and technological progress: an analysis of 20th century climatic dystopias

  • Advisor : SAMIA REGINA GARCIA CALHEIROS
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • RITA VALERIA ANDREOLI DE SOUZA
  • MARY TOSHIE KAYANO
  • ROGER RODRIGUES TORRES
  • SAMIA REGINA GARCIA CALHEIROS
  • Data: Feb 23, 2021


  • Show Abstract
  • Science fiction has been one of the most popular genres in literature since its emergence in the 19th century. The genre sought to look at the future, imagining new technological advances, that then seemed unlimited, which brought it closer to the literature of utopia and dystopia. After the end of World War II and the explosion of the atomic bomb, optimism in a world guided by science diminishes considerably and dystopias considered the very end of civilization through the apocalyptic and post-apocalyptic subgenres. The nuclear cataclysm remained popular in fictional works throughout the century, but in 1970s, a new threat proved to be just as dangerous for human civilization: the environmental crises. The prognosis of a collapse created a dystopian imagery as powerful as that of a nuclear war. It was also a threat to the capitalist mode of production since external limits to economic growth are established. If the atomic bomb showed the destructive potential of war technology, environmental crises call into question the same technological artifacts that allowed the optimism in the 19th century. This dissertation asks how works of dystopian fiction characterize environmental crises over the last century. Therefore, climatic dystopias are the object of study, defined as: fictional works located in the near or distant future that describe a worse society, according to the author, than that of the moment and place in which it was written and that deal with ecological or environmental issues such as the focus, or one of the focuses, of the dysfunctionality of their world. Its objective is to investigate the different critical perceptions regarding technology in climatic dystopias. To do so, it proposes to examine the history of the belief in anthropogenic climate change, to compare the dystopian character of science fiction works throughout the 20th century and to identify in these specific criticisms the technology, taking into account its historical and artistic context. In the results, it is observed that: the opposition between civilization and nature is a recurring theme in the works studied, when reflecting on alternative modes of existence outside modern industrial society; The works proved to be useful for the study of the history of environmental crises, by revealing characteristics of key moments of awareness regarding these; And, finally, there is no linearity in their criticism of technological progress, but they all manifest positions contrary to the capitalist way of life.

5
  • GABRIEL DE OLIVEIRA MACHADO
  • SUB SEASONAL FLOW FORECAST TO PARACATU RIVER

  • Advisor : BENEDITO CLAUDIO DA SILVA
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • BENEDITO CLAUDIO DA SILVA
  • CHOU SIN CHAN
  • NIVEA ADRIANA DIAS PONS
  • Data: Feb 25, 2021


  • Show Abstract
  • Knowing the hydrological variables with a certain amount of time in advance is essential for planning strategies that relate to the management of water resources. The study area that covers this type of information is called hydrological forecasting, which consists of the representation of the physical phenomena of a hydrographic basin, through mathematical equations, aiming to estimate flows in the future. The present study focuses on the analysis of the flow tools by set in the sub-seasonal horizon in the hydrographic basin of the Paracatu River, which has irrigation as the main form of water use. Calibration of the MGB-IPH model was carried out, subsequent hydroclimatic forecasting as a whole, integrating the hydrological and climatic models, and finally, an analysis of the performance indicators was carried out. The results of the calibration of the hydrological model were considered satisfactory, based on the Nash, Nash-Log, Volume Error, Bias and dispersion graphs. The results of the probabilistic forecast are better when compared to the results of the deterministic forecast, obtained by the BS and BSS indicators. Through the indicators H, POD, FAR and BIAS, the results of the probabilistic forecast are better satisfactory for most of the sub-basins, but limited to the first months of forecast (January, February, April) and with greater efficiency in the first 20-30 days of forecast. The results were unsatisfactory and the flows were overestimated for some sub-basins, for example 42460000 and 42490000, (which claim interference from the Queimados HPP) mainly in the last months of the year (September, October) and in the last 30-40 days of forecast.

6
  • Thales Alves Teodoro
  • PROJECTED CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SOUTH AMERICAN MONSOON BY THE END OF 21ST CENTURY

  • Advisor : MICHELLE SIMOES REBOITA
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • BENEDITO CLAUDIO DA SILVA
  • GUSTAVO CARLOS JUAN ESCOBAR
  • MARTA PEREIRA LLOPART
  • MICHELLE SIMOES REBOITA
  • ROSMERI PORFIRIO DA ROCHA
  • Data: Mar 1, 2021


  • Show Abstract
  • The projected changes in the South America Monsoon System (SAMS) related to the (1)
    expansion area; (2) terms of surface water and energy balances and (3) pressure at mean sea level (PMSL) patterns are shown for the end of the century (2080-2099), under Representative Pathway Scenario 8.5 (RCP8.5). For this reason, a set of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and projections of the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) nested to these GCMs were analyzed. The analysis of balance terms are concentrated in four subdomains: Northern Amazon (NAMZ), Southern Amazon (SAMZ), La Plata Basin (LPB) and Southern Southeast Brazil (SSB). For the analysis, ensembles from the projections of the GCMs and RegCM4 were used. Both ensembles indicate a decrease in the monsoon area in the south of the Amazon and an expansion towards the Atlantic Ocean in the period 2080-2099 compared with 1995-2014. The trends in the water and energy balances, considering the wet period of the SAMS (November to March), show different signs in each subdomain. While in NAMZ and SAMZ, ensembles project dry conditions (i.e., decrease in the amount of precipitation, soil moisture and runoff), in LPB and SSB they project more wet conditions at the end of the century. In the four subdomains, an increase in air temperature is projected. The warmer conditions in the subdomains of the Amazon (NAMZ and SAMZ) are associated with changes in the energy balance terms (increased net radiation and sensitive heat flux on the surface and decreased latent heat flux on the surface), while in LPB and SSB are not directly associated with changes in the energy balance. The analysis of the pattern of PMSL was carried out using the principal component analysis technique. The results of this stage of the study indicate that for the future climate a change in the frequency of the patterns found in the present climate is projected. However, no significant changes in the acting of atmospheric systems are projected in the CPs of the future climate.

7
  • BRUNO CÉSAR CAPUCIN
  • SYNOTIC AND LARGE-SCALE ANALYSIS OF EXTREME COLD WAVES IN THE SOUTHEAST OF BRAZIL IN THE 20TH CENTURY

  • Advisor : MICHELLE SIMOES REBOITA
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • ANA CAROLINA NÓBILE TOMAZIELLO
  • ENRIQUE VIEIRA MATTOS
  • GUSTAVO CARLOS JUAN ESCOBAR
  • MARTA PEREIRA LLOPART
  • MICHELLE SIMOES REBOITA
  • Data: Mar 2, 2021


  • Show Abstract
  • The 20th century was marked by several intense cold waves in Brazil. Due to the impacts of
    cold extremes on public health and agriculture, this study aimed to investigate 12 episodes
    that occurred in Southeast Brazil between the years 1961 and 2017. In addition, we performed
    a case study for one of these events, which occurred in 1985, due to its magnitude and
    duration.
    For this purpose, the ERA20-C reanalysis data was used in order to elaborate the synoptic
    fields, compositions and for the application of ray tracing. Regarding the synoptic patterns of
    the 12 events, there is a similarity in the structure of the waves in the upper atmosphere,
    which, in general, present ridges amplified in the East Pacific Ocean and amplified troughs
    over South America (SA). This wave pattern is important to direct the flow from south to
    north at low levels, generating cold horizontal advection in the Southeast Region.
    Compositions of the 250 hPa geopotential height anomaly show a Rossby wave train that
    departs from the center-east of the South Pacific Ocean towards SA two days before the
    extreme cold at the study site. The ray tracing analysis confirm the compositions and reveals
    that the source region of the number 2 and 3 planetary waves is the central-eastern part of the
    South Pacific Ocean. It is suggested that the ridges that amplify from the East Pacific Ocean
    towards the Patagonia and, later, to the Southwest Atlantic Ocean, are a response to the events
    of the Rossby wave break that occur in the AS longitudes. The results obtained for the 1985
    cold wave show that the amplification of an existing long wave over the South American
    continent contributed to a blocking pattern, which explains the consecutive days of cold
    advection in the Center-South of Brazil and, consequently, in the Southeast Region. This is
    because the blocking structure in the longitudes of the SA - forced from a disturbance in the
    wave train of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) generated in the Indian Ocean - established a
    dipole baric field in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean, characterized by a high block in the
    Falkland Islands and low pressure on the east coast of the South Region of Brazil. The
    performance of both systems intensified the pressure gradient that directed the south/southeast
    winds in the interior of the continent for several days. The persistence of this atmospheric
    configuration has generated records of minimum temperatures and a wide area covered by
    frost in several states, including the snow record at Pico das Agulhas Negras, within the
    Itatiaia National Park.

8
  • ANA LUÍZA DE SOUZA MARCONDES
  • Participatory methodologies as a tool for minimizing social and environmental conflicts in Conservation Units

  • Advisor : DANIELA ROCHA TEIXEIRA RIONDET COSTA
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • DANIELA ROCHA TEIXEIRA RIONDET COSTA
  • LUCIANA BOTEZELLI
  • LUIZ FELIPE SILVA
  • MARIA CLAUDIA COSTA DE OLIVEIRA BOTAN
  • Data: Mar 5, 2021


  • Show Abstract
  • National Parks are Conservation Units (UCs) that can be the scene of socioenvironmental conflicts due to their restrictions on access and use of natural
    resources and the lack of social participation in their management. The Serra da
    Bocaina National Park, on the border between the states of São Paulo and Rio de
    Janeiro, was created in 1971 and has, over the years, experienced conflicts that
    can harm its management and prevent its conservationist objectives from being
    achieved, with highlight to the Vila de Trindade, in Paraty-RJ. Thus, the general
    objective of this work is to analyze the appropriation of participatory methodologies
    by the managers of the Serra da Bocaina National Park, aiming to minimize socioenvironmental conflicts in Vila de Trindade. To this end, questionnaires were
    applied to assess the environmental perception and experience of conflict of the
    local population, applying hypothesis tests to determine the socioeconomic
    characteristics that influence the experience of conflict in the region, in addition to
    semi-structured interviews to identify perceptions and expectations of park
    managers and the local community about participatory methodologies applied at
    the study site. These data were finally analyzed using the SWOT Matrix. As results
    obtained, the average environmental perception found for the population of Vila de
    Trindade stands out, in contrast to a great lack of knowledge about the definition of
    UCs and their locations. In addition, it was found that, at the study site, populations
    over 45 years old and who have lived there for more than 20 years experience,
    statistically, more socio-environmental conflicts with the Park. Finally, it was
    concluded that there is an agreement between the population and the Park on the
    need for environmental conservation of the area, however, for the minimization of
    local socio-environmental conflicts, the broader development of participatory
    methodologies focused on the local reality is extremely necessary, with frequent
    presence of managers in the Park area.

9
  • Vitor Hugo de Almeida Marrafon
  • IDENTIFICATION OF TRENDS IN PRECIPITATION AND CYCLONIC ACTIVITY IN SOUTH AMERICA

  • Advisor : MICHELLE SIMOES REBOITA
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • EDUARDO MARCOS DE JESUS
  • ENRIQUE VIEIRA MATTOS
  • MICHELLE SIMOES REBOITA
  • ROSMERI PORFIRIO DA ROCHA
  • Data: Mar 5, 2021


  • Show Abstract

  • This study presents the main climatological characteristics and trends, for precipitation, considering extreme rates, and cyclonic activities, in South America and the South Atlantic, respectively. Precipitation analysis was performed from data provided by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC-NOAA) in the period 1979-2019. Cyclone tracking was performed considering data from reduced pressure at sea level from 6 different reanalyses, including two centenaries ones. From cyclones tracked in simulations for present and future climate from The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), the climatological characteristics and trends for the different types of cyclogenesis were analyzed. The classification of cyclogenesis types is carried out in three stages: the first to identify and track cyclones in the South Atlantic Ocean based on the relative vorticity at 925 hPa; application of the Cyclone Phase Space methodology to synthesize the thermal structure of the cyclones and finally, separate the cyclones based on their thermal characteristics. The main results of this study show that in a large part of South America, mainly in the band that extends from the Amazon towards the southeastern region of Brazil (region of the Prata basin), the trends indicate less (greater) availability of water in the cycle hydrological. For cyclonic activities, reanalysis with higher resolution are the ones that provide the greatest number of cyclones, but this does not affect the climatological characteristics. For the entire Southern Hemisphere, the NCEP20C shows a positive and statistically significant trend in the frequency of cyclones, while the ERA20C indicates a negative trend. For Intense cyclones (reaching central pressure less than 980 hPa) showed an increasing trend in all reanalyses. Considering the different types of cyclones, for the period 2020-2050 (2051-2080), the ensemble of Global Circulation Models (MCGs) and dynamic downscaling using RegCM4 project a slight reduction (increase) in the frequency of tropical cyclones when compared to the present climate (1979-2005). One of the initial hypotheses of the study was that in a warming scenario, there would be an increase in the number of TT, however the results obtained do not indicate a change in the frequency of these systems since in both the present and future climate the number of transitions is ~ 2.8 systems per decade in both ensembles.

10
  • TOMÁS FORTES GIFFONI
  • SECTORIZATION IN WATER DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS: a review systematic bibliography

  • Advisor : FERNANDO DAS GRACAS BRAGA DA SILVA
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • ALEXANDRE KEPLER SOARES
  • BENEDITO CLAUDIO DA SILVA
  • FERNANDO DAS GRACAS BRAGA DA SILVA
  • JOSE ANTONIO TOSTA DOS REIS
  • Data: Mar 8, 2021


  • Show Abstract
  • Due to the current economic situation in the countries and the growing need to
    guarantee the sustainability of services. Supply companies are developing techniques
    to optimize available resources. Among the several failures identified in water
    distribution systems, the high level of water losses stands out. This problem has been
    minimized by combining the sectorization of networks with pressure management. The
    sectorization consists of its division into smaller sectors (Measurement and Control
    Districts - DMC’s). In order to reduce the complexity present in the management of the
    network, ensuring greater reliability and improving the useful life of the pipes and
    devices of the system. In this way, this research aims to systematically gather all
    scientific knowledge about the sectorization applied in water distribution networks.
    Considering published academic articles and three databases of great relevance in the
    scientific literature. The methodological approach of the present work was a systematic
    review of the literature on the topic. A total of 37 papers were systematically identified
    and reviewed, through which it was possible to identify the most relevant articles. The
    main methodologies applied to the sectorization process are extracted, algorithms
    adopted and the main benefits resulting from the application of the sectioning of the
    network.

11
  • POLIANA MARCELA DA SILVA
  • Analysis of the hydraulic behavior of spillways in the variation of the number of Froude - Computer Simulation

  • Advisor : FERNANDO DAS GRACAS BRAGA DA SILVA
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • EUDES JOSÉ ARANTES
  • FERNANDO DAS GRACAS BRAGA DA SILVA
  • IVAN FELIPE SILVA DOS SANTOS
  • OSWALDO HONORATO DE SOUZA JUNIOR
  • Data: Mar 8, 2021


  • Show Abstract
  • Hydraulic flow has a wide range of technical applications in engineering in areas involving
    sanitation, urban drainage, irrigation, hydroelectric, navigation and environmental preservation.
    In this way, runoff on a free surface can be considered a destructive factor in nature and can
    damage structures and take human lives. The objective of this work is study the behavior of the
    flow in a real rectangular channel by means of computational simulations in computational fluid
    dynamics to determine the type of flow through the Froude number and to analyze the hydraulic
    behavior for three spillways with different geometry: bottom, rectangular and triangular with
    different flow values. For this purpose, a Fortran programming language was used to carry out
    preliminary simulations with the prediction of the channel behavior which, through
    calculations, can define the type of spillway geometry. On the other hand, computational fluid
    dynamics software was used, which allows analyzing the hydraulic behavior of the channel in
    addition to allowing the colors maps construction of each spillway inserted in the channel. The
    present study indicates that the computational model is able to reproduce flows on a free surface
    taking precautions regarding the quality of the mesh that guarantees the convergence of the
    computational solution. The analyzes allowed the calculation of the Froude number to be
    carried out upstream of the spillway, on top of the spillway and downstream of the spillway,
    allowing to understand the hydraulic behavior for each situation under study.

12
  • EMERSON PESSANHA DE ALMEIDA
  • Application of statistical analysis in water distribution networks: A systematic review of the art

  • Advisor : FERNANDO DAS GRACAS BRAGA DA SILVA
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • ADELENA GONÇALVES MAIA
  • FERNANDO DAS GRACAS BRAGA DA SILVA
  • LUIZ FELIPE SILVA
  • VICTOR EDUARDO DE MELLO VALERIO
  • Data: Mar 9, 2021


  • Show Abstract
  • The developed research on water distribution networks are of great relevance, considering the social, environmental and economic impacts occurred due to the scarcity of hydric resources. Therefore, all the cientific efforts denoted on the researches that study the distribution water network are of great relevance. Techniques as mathematical modeling, computer simulation and statistic methods are widely used to obtain more reliable answers for the actual situation of the network and also for the prediction of scenarios, failure events, increased demand, etc. The main objective of this research is to carry out a bibliometric and systematic analysis that contemplates researches that use statistic models for the control and reduction of water volume losses in the distribution system, identifying which were the models applied, resulting the actual scenarios, which will be as guide for the futures works to be structured in the most relevant research’s that studies the theme. The developed methodology was able to analyze a metadata composed of 4150 documents from the base of Web of Science. As result was obtained a geographical view of the subject pointing out the major countries, affiliations, journals and researchers, as well as pointed out the main documents, the relevance of the theme and the statistical models applied. It is concluded that the most applied statistical models are regression, survival analysis, Monte Carlo technique and Poisson technique respectively. Eighteen other techniques were used, but in smaller quantities, which do not render them ineffective, water distribution networks are complex mechanisms and sometimes require different forms of approach that require other models of statistical analysis.

13
  • HALINE COSTA DOS SANTOS
  • APPLICATION OF OPTIMIZATION METHODS FOR OPERATION OF WATER DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS: A Systematic Literature Review

  • Advisor : FERNANDO DAS GRACAS BRAGA DA SILVA
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • ALEXANDRE KEPLER SOARES
  • BENEDITO CLAUDIO DA SILVA
  • FERNANDO DAS GRACAS BRAGA DA SILVA
  • JOSE ANTONIO TOSTA DOS REIS
  • Data: Mar 9, 2021


  • Show Abstract
  • In last time research of to optimize water supply systems has long been found in the
    literature, whether related to the design, operation, calibration or testing of networks. In
    view of the growing population increase, based on the fact that water distribution systems
    involve energy, in addition to the finite natural resource, optimizing the processes related
    to the operation of the networks arises with the need to implement techniques that seek,
    among other objectives, to minimize costs and losses, control pressure inside the pipes,
    which has the purpose of guaranteeing water to the consumer in sufficient quantity and
    quality. The present study was carried out using the StArt software, which helps in
    structuring a systematic review, in order to gather relevant works from 1977 to 2020. The
    collection of 87 articles started from a search that originated 637 results, being 335 from
    the Web Of Science database, 152 works from the Scopus database, 100 results from the
    Science Direct database, and 49 articles from Google Academic, 1 classic article was
    manually added to the StArt system. The research followed a search methodology. This
    result originated from the pre-establishment of search keywords and the application of
    search filters. The funneling of the results began with the application of criteria for
    inclusion and exclusion of articles, in order to select the one most targeted at the theme
    of optimizing the operation of water supply networks. Subsequently, a quality analysis
    was performed, where each article was scored based on 10 pre-established quality criteria.
    Data related to the applied optimization method were extracted, number of objective
    functions (single or multi-objective), number of restrictions used, number of decision
    variables used, application or not of penalty function; type of system (pumping or
    configuration of valves), type of network studied (real or theoretical) and hydraulic
    simulator. The results indicate that among the evaluated articles, genetic algorithms
    (simple, hybrid and multiobjective) are the most employed optimization method, and
    most of these studies use 5 or more restrictions and decision variables. The application of
    penalty and non-application functions were quite balanced between the jobs,
    corresponding to 49% and 51% respectively. The type of system studied, the pumping
    systems represent the vast majority, as well as the type of theoretical network and the
    hydraulic simulator EPANET.

14
  • KLEBER BARCELAR SANTOS
  • CHARACTERIZATION AND DETECTION OF CHANGES IN PERMANENT PRESERVATION AREAS WITH USE OF GEOTECHNOLOGIES

  • Advisor : NIVEA ADRIANA DIAS PONS
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • CAMILA DE SOUZA ANJOS LACERDA
  • NIVEA ADRIANA DIAS PONS
  • SAMARA CALCADO DE AZEVEDO
  • VANESSA CRISTINA OLIVEIRA DE SOUZA
  • Data: Mar 15, 2021


  • Show Abstract
  • Permanent Preservation Areas (APP) are one of the legal tools for conservation
    of the remaining native vegetation in the country, since, throughout the occupation process in Brazil, fauna and flora are under pressure from anthropic interventions. In this context, monitoring and preservation of these areas are essential for the maintenance of Brazilian biomes, mainly for the Atlantic Forest biome, which has been suffering increasing losses. In this study aims to evaluate the potential of object-based classification in the identification and mapping of anthropic interventions in APP in the south of Minas Gerais (MG). First
    an exploratory analysis of the data on occurrences of anthropic interventions in APP in the South of Minas in the years 2011 to 2019 obtained with the Civil Police (PC) of MG. You
    The results of this analysis pointed to a downward trend in the number of occurrences,
    with the identification of greater annual increases in the number of occurrences for the municipalities Estiva and Pouso Alegre. The second step was the process of mapping interventions performed by using an object-oriented classification (GEOBIA) in the software
    eCognition in images from the Sentinel-2 satellite, with the application of Data Mining concepts and Machine Learning. The study area chosen was the municipality with the highest rate of increase of occurrences of intervention in APP in the recent period of 2016-2019 and the chosen period was the month with the highest incidence of occurrences. As a result, a variation was obtained negative vegetation in June 2018 in the municipality of Pouso Alegre. Of this variation of arboreal vegetation, 0.74 km² were due to changes in land use of APP, distributed in 3043 points, 138 of them with areas larger than 1,000 m². The ratings obtained balanced performance (PRC-Precision and Recall under the curve and ROC-Received Operator Characteristic under the curve close to 1) and satisfactory (Kappa Index of 0.9072; Average F-Measure of 0.926; Average MMC of 0.908), with only one class (cultivation) with significant confusion in the error matrix. The results found were considered satisfactory and, in this way, it is expected that this work will serve as an aid in planning and management of Civil Police resources so that there is an effective inspection and fight against deforestation of the Atlantic Forest biome in southern Minas Gerais.

15
  • Michel Yasuyuki Gejima Júnior
  • EVALUATION OF WIND POTENTIAL AT PICO DOS DIAS IN BRAZÓPOLIS/MG

  • Advisor : ARCILAN TREVENZOLI ASSIREU
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • ARCILAN TREVENZOLI ASSIREU
  • BRUNO VAZ CASTILHO DE SOUZA
  • GERALDO LUCIO TIAGO FILHO
  • Data: Jul 30, 2021


  • Show Abstract
  • Currently in Brazil, the renewable energy production sector has been growing considerably,
    especially in the production of photovoltaic and wind energy. Compared to the rest of the
    world, the Brazilian wind sector occupies the seventh position in the ranking of countries that produce the most energy from wind. It is to be expected that in a continental country, with several coastal regions, it has great potential to be exploited from wind flow. If only this were not enough, due to the great global concern with the environment, new technologies are emerging to improve and reach new levels in sustainable energy production. With this same perspective, this work has as main objective to evaluate the wind potential in Pico dos Dias. This region has complex orographic characteristics and is located between the municipalities of Brazópolis in the south of MG, approximately 1864 meters above mean sea level. The challenge of this work is to understand how the wind flow behaves over this region. To achieve this goal, the National Astrophysics Laboratory assisted in this study, providing meteorological data for the region and in the construction of a Reduced Model that represented in scale the orography of Pico dos Dias, was printed on a 3D printer. After this stage of work, the Reduced Model was tested in the wind tunnel, where several tests were carried out to verify the conditions that the wind flow over Pico dos Dias offers for the production of electricity. With the results of both the wind tunnel test and the analyzes carried out on meteorological data, it was possible to select the size of the most suitable examples of wind turbines for the location. After this work phase, a financial feasibility analysis was carried out around each chosen wind turbine model. The results of this analysis showed that at a minimum attractiveness rate of 4.59%, three of the four turbine models evaluated showed positive profitability indicators. At the end of this work, it was possible to demonstrate, from a meteorological and financial point of view, that Pico dos Dias can generate energy through the flow of the wind that passes over this region.

16
  • Brunna Araújo
  • CONTRIBUTION OF AGROECOLOGICAL PRODUCTION SYSTEMS IN THE BUFFERING ZONE OF NATIONAL PARKS: PARTNERSHIP IN THE OBJECTIVES OF THE CONSERVATION UNIT.

  • Advisor : DANIELA ROCHA TEIXEIRA RIONDET COSTA
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • ANTÔNIO CARLOS PRIES DEVIDE
  • DANIELA ROCHA TEIXEIRA RIONDET COSTA
  • LUIZ FELIPE SILVA
  • NIVEA ADRIANA DIAS PONS
  • Data: Nov 1, 2021


  • Show Abstract
  • National Parks are Conservation Units (CUs) that have around them the delimitation of an area in order to contain the negative impacts to the core area, called buffer zones. These surrounding areas are subject to specific rules and restrictions, according to the National System of Conservation Units (SNUC), and it is in the CU Management Plan that the guidelines to be followed for the conservation processes to take place are found. Land use and management in the buffer zone needs to be defined in order to meet CUs objectives. In the Management Plan for the Itatiaia National Park (PNI) there is no standard, guideline or restriction that addresses alternative forms of soil management, such as agroecological systems. A special case occurs in the city of Itamonte/MG, where 80% of its territory is within CUs, including the PNI and its buffer zone which is within the limits of other UCs and requires preferential land use policies agroecological based systems. Thus, the general objective of this work is to analyze the contribution of agroecological production systems in achieving the objectives of the Itatiaia National Park in terms of its buffer zone. To this end, geoprocessing techniques were applied to map the area of the buffer zone and core area of the park where they have agroecological production systems, and questionnaires to understand the perception of farmers about the existence of the park, the buffer zone and agroecological systems of production that develop on their properties. The data were finally analyzed using the SWOT Matrix. As a result, the importance of agroecological production systems in minimizing the negative impacts on the limits of the PA, the connectivity of the systems with the forests adjacent to the park's forests and the socioeconomic purpose that the systems enable is highlighted. It is concluded that it is essential to establish collective actions, integrating the Serra da Mantiqueira Mosaic and the surrounding community, in order to diagnose, plan and implement sustainable agroecological systems in the buffer zone.

17
  • GLAUBER WILLIAN DE SOUZA FERREIRA
  • Validation of seasonal climate predictions for South America: ECMWF-SEAS5 global model

  • Advisor : MICHELLE SIMOES REBOITA
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • MICHELLE SIMOES REBOITA
  • NATÁLIA MACHADO CRESPO
  • ROGER RODRIGUES TORRES
  • ROSMERI PORFIRIO DA ROCHA
  • Data: Dec 16, 2021


  • Show Abstract
  • This work evaluated the quality of ECMWF-SEAS5 seasonal precipitation and 2 m temperature predictions for South America. For this purpose, datasets of hindcasts from 1993 to 2016 and forecasts from 2017 to 2020 were used. The predictions were validated against CPC precipitation and temperature analyses. The average seasonal fields indicated that the model has a good representation of the seasonal rainfall patterns in South America, adequately simulating the wet and dry phases of the monsoon. However, the hindcasts present systematic overestimation of rain in the Amazon, South Brazil, Southeast Brazil, and northern South America sectors. In addition, the model also presents an underestimation of rain in Northeast Brazil and southeastern South America. Regarding the temperature results, the model showed a systematic cold bias over most of the continent, except for portions of Northeast Brazil and southeastern South America. The skill score evaluation showed that the main correlations of precipitation and temperature anomaly occur in regions of high climate predictability, such as the tropical latitudes of the continent. The regionalized mean anomalies indicated that ECMWF-SEAS5 has a good performance to simulate the interannual variability of rainfall and temperature, especially in transition seasons. However, hindcasts were not efficient for predicting anomalous events such as the 2014/2015 drought in Southeast Brazil and the 2015 drought in the east of the Amazon. The analysis of the forecasts from 2017 to 2020 showed that systematic errors of overestimation (underestimation) of rainfall persist in regions such as the Amazon, Southeast Brazil, South Brazil, and northern South America (Northeast Brazil and southeastern South America). Similarly, temperature underestimation (overestimation) errors in most of the continent (Northeast Brazil and southeastern South America) remain in the real-time forecasts. Overall, it is concluded that the ECMWF-SEAS5 model performs seasonal rainfall and temperature predictions for South America with considerable dexterity and potential for diverse applications. However, its limitations and errors must be considered for the best use of its predictions.

18
  • ROBSON PEREIRA MARTINS
  • Título em Inglês - não tem

  • Advisor : GERALDO LUCIO TIAGO FILHO
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • ANA LUCIA FONSECA
  • GERALDO LUCIO TIAGO FILHO
  • IVAN FELIPE SILVA DOS SANTOS
  • MARIA CLAUDIA COSTA DE OLIVEIRA BOTAN
  • Data: Dec 16, 2021


  • Show Abstract
  • This work aims to study and analyze the actions necessary to UNIFEI (Federal University of Itajubá) to comply with the Laws, Draft Laws and Resolutions regarding distributed generation through the use of renewable energy sources; what practices can be implemented and, for the current reality of the university, what would be the most viable and economical sources of energy. In this sense, the work: analyze which points could be fulfilled by UNIFEI - from the point of view of sustainability plans to meet its demand; investigate, for the reality of the university, the most suitable sources and conversion systems; carry out a survey of the generation systems now available at Itajubá Campus. Through a quantitative survey, real data on the generation and consumption of electricity from UNIFEI will be analyzed. It will be verified which types of renewable energies are already implemented at UNIFEI (Itajubá Campus), which could be installed, as well as the estimated costs (R$) of the investment, savings and financial return. 

2020
Dissertations
1
  • ANA FLAVIA MARTINS MONTEIRO
  • Evapotranspiration in Brazil: current scenario and climate projections.

  • Advisor : FABRINA BOLZAN MARTINS
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • ENRIQUE VIEIRA MATTOS
  • FABRINA BOLZAN MARTINS
  • MARCEL CARVALHO ABREU
  • ROGER RODRIGUES TORRES
  • Data: Feb 17, 2020


  • Show Abstract
  • Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) has spatial and temporal variation, due to the performance of meteorological systems, vegetation type and soil properties. It is an essential parameter for planning irrigation systems and water use efficiency through the optimization of water resources, make it necessary to quantify their spatial distribution and magnitude. However, ETo is a variable that is difficult to measure in meteorological stations, in addition to not being directly present in climate projection models, making the use of estimation methods an attractive tool. However, information on the analysis of the behavior of this variable is relatively restricted in Brazil, probably due to the limited availability of data and the long time required to process this information. ETo information in Brazil is restricted to a regional scale, in addition to being produced by complex estimation methods or incomplete determination tools. Additionally, Brazil is one of the largest producers of agricultural commodities in the world, and a large part of its territory is vulnerable to climate changes projected to occur during the 21st century, directly reflecting changes in ETo. In this sense, it is essential to check the ETo space-time pattern, accurately estimate its response to climate change and identify the main meteorological variables that cause variations in evapotranspiration. Therefore, the present work aims to analyze the influence of climate projections for the end of the 21st century (2071-2100), using two scenarios of radiative forcing (Representative Concentration Pathways - RCPs 4.5 and 8.5), on the behavior of daily evapotranspiration in the Brazil, based on the ETo estimation method that presents the best representativeness for the Brazilian climatic conditions. For the analysis of the current climatic conditions, daily data of air temperature (maximum and minimum), relative humidity, wind intensity at 2 m, global solar radiation, ETo and atmospheric pressure for the period from 1980 to 2017 were used. For climate change, daily data on air temperature, global solar radiation and relative humidity on the surface of six climate system models from simulations and projections of the Coupled Model Intercomparasion Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were used. The behavior of ETo was mainly accompanied by the variables of air temperature, global solar radiation and relative humidity. For this reason, the Turc method was superior to the other in estimating ETo, with root mean square error values between 0.3 and 0.5 mm day-1, mean absolute percentage error between 8 and 10 % and performance index c between 0.65 and 0.93. The climatic projections of the six climate models indicated a diversified pattern in the ETo estimate. Considering RCP 8.5, despite the distribution of seasonal and annual differences in ETo present a spatial structure similar to RCP 4.5, there is an intensification of the reduction (~ 0.30 mm day-1), opposite to what was expected. One justification is the uncertainties about future changes in ETo, both related to the interactions of meteorological factors, as well as the performance of the estimation method considering future scenarios and the choice of climate models.

2
  • ANA LETÍCIA CAMPOS YAMAMOTO
  • Cloud cover imaging by cell phone: contributions for UV index modelling by radiative transfer model

  • Advisor : MARCELO DE PAULA CORREA
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • ENRIQUE VIEIRA MATTOS
  • MARCELO DE PAULA CORREA
  • MARCIA AKEMI YAMASOE
  • Data: Feb 19, 2020


  • Show Abstract
  • The ultraviolet radiation (UVR) influences life on Earth and its monitoring is relevant and necessary for studies on different areas of knowledge. UVR modelling by radiative transfer models (RTM) is always an alternative for lack of surface and/or remote measurements. However, RTM estimates may present significant errors related to the UVR attenuation processes in the atmosphere. Cloud cover (CC) effects represent one of the most important source of RTM errors. In general, sky images are taken by all-sky cameras as a tool for automating cloud quantification, but these instruments are still an expensive option for poorer countries. Thus, we develop a low-cost and affordable technique for determining CC using photography. 230 sky images were collected using a smartphone (Samsung Galaxy A5) and photographic camera (Sony Cyber-Shot – DSH-H7) simultaneously. This high-quality set of sky photos covers different types and amounts. A set of algorithms processed the images, classifying and counting the pixels of the clouds. 13 thresholds were tested, among the ones found in the literature (0,12, 0,65, and 0,90.), to classify the pixels of the clouds. For validation, the photographs were visually assessed by an observer, and statistically, by the methods of analysis of linear regression and coefficient of determination (R²). UVR estimates were performed using the Tropospheric Ultraviolet and Visible (TUV) RTM model. The following conditions were observed for atmospheric vertical profile: a) tropical atmosphere profile; b) total ozone content (TOC); and c) aerosol optical properties at Itajubá’s site (22.4°S, 45.5°W, 850m.). Previously, RTM parametrization and sensitivity tests were performed involving different optical depths (OD), vertical thicknesses, cloud base height and cloud top height for winter and summer solstices. Then, UVR data provided by a Kipp & Zonen SUV-E radiometer were used to compare UV Index (UVI) estimates from RTM by statistical methods: a) the root-mean-square error (RMSE); b) correlation coefficient (r); c) BIAS and; index of agreement (d). To evaluate the effect of the clouds, the Cloud Modification Factor (CMF) Index was used. Results showed satisfactory performance of the technique (p < 0.0001) with the utilization of the thresholds of 0.18 (smartphone) and 0.26 (photographic camera), being higher the ones obtained with the utilization of the threshold of 0.12. About the other thresholds found in the literature, the results reveal equivocally, values of CC corresponding to 100% for every case. Sensitivity tests showed that the vertical position and the thickness of the clouds represent only a source of minor errors lower than 3.2% for UVI calculations. Thus, the cloud OD is the most important input value to be considered for the TUV RTM. In general, the performance of the TUV MTR in cloudiness events was satisfactory (p < 0.0001), with strong positive correlations (r > 0.91), high agreements (d > 0.92) and tendency of overestimation of the model. The maximum UVI observed was 13.7 in the presence of Altocumulus (Ac) clouds. In case of strong UVI attenuation caused by overcast skies with Nimbostratus (Ns) clouds, the mean CMF value was 0,2 (± 0,1). On the other hand, UVI increase occurred in Cumulus (Cu) clouds conditions, with mean CMF of 1,1 (± 0.1). It is worth pointing out that the occurrence of clouds does not indicate safe sun exposure.

3
  • RAQUEL SILVA COSTA
  • Technical viability of unit pricing in the municipal solid waste management system

  • Advisor : BENEDITO CLAUDIO DA SILVA
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • ANDRE GERALDO CORNELIO RIBEIRO
  • BENEDITO CLAUDIO DA SILVA
  • HERLANE COSTA CALHEIROS
  • IVAN FELIPE SILVA DOS SANTOS
  • Data: Feb 19, 2020


  • Show Abstract
  • Given the current Brazilian scenario in the municipal solid waste management system, the country has been making effective progress since the enactment of the National Solid Waste Policy in 2010, however, there are still some gaps to be filled, such as the economic and environmental sustainability of municipalities. Due to the structure of the system’s managers and the type of collection applied, the financial situation and environmental indicators of the municipal solid waste management system in Brazilian municipalities are unfavorable. In this context, this research aims to propose a model that analyzes the technical viability of implementing unit pricing in the municipal solid waste management system and to apply it in a case study in Pouso Alegre (MG) to refine the proposal. The analysis involves the diagnosis of the system, the assessment of environmental and economic sustainability and the selection of the unit pricing typology most appropriate to the municipality. With the application of the case study, it was noted some flaws in the model, which were corrected in order to obtain a result that allows the municipality an analysis of the technical viability of any of the unit pricing typologies, considering all the factors influencing the implementation of the program. The results also showed that the model allows the manager to evaluate the environmental and economic requirements of the municipal solid waste management system. Finally, it can be concluded that there is great potential for unit pricing programs in Brazilian municipalities, but it should be considered that cultural, infrastructure and legal peculiarities may present themselves as adversities in the process of implementation of these programs, therefore these factors should be considered in the analysis.

4
  • RAFAEL ARCANJO DE OLIVEIRA FILHO
  • Spatial and seasonal distribution of wind potential in Minas Gerais using the Global Forecast System (GFS)

  • Advisor : VANESSA SILVEIRA BARRETO CARVALHO
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • ARCILAN TREVENZOLI ASSIREU
  • LUIZ CLAUDIO GOMES PIMENTEL
  • MICHELLE SIMOES REBOITA
  • VANESSA SILVEIRA BARRETO CARVALHO
  • Data: Mar 5, 2020


  • Show Abstract
  • Several regions of Brazil have been experiencing periods of intense drought in the last
    decades. Given the current energy matrix of the country is predominantly produced by
    hydropower plants, a reduction in the reservoir flow can compromise its production.
    Therefore, the Brazilian government has seeking the diversification of energy production with other renewable sources. The introduction of new renewable sources such as wind and solar power requires a detailed study about local weather conditions usually through historical data analysis. However, several areas in Brazil are not covered by weather station. In this context, this studies aims to assess the ability of the Global Forecast System (GFS) to represent wind , on the state of Minas Gerais (MG), which has 79.5% of energy production associated with water resources. For most areas, 10 meters wind speed values of the GFS analysis registered by the weather stations were very close to that registered by the weather stations GFS analysis. Considering the 10 and 100 meters, the winds are more intense in the north of the state, a region where the highest power densities are also recorded (approximately 150 Wm-2 in winter and spring). Knowing that the north of the state is characterized by low precipitation rates, mainly during winter and spring, seasons when the winds, in turn, are more intense in this area, the results of the model indicate that the region can be classified in Class 1, taking into account the intensity and power density of the wind. Thus, it has low conditions for the generation of wind energy; however it can be used as a complementary source to the generation of hydroelectricity.

5
  • CAMILA MENDES DOS SANTOS
  • Social determinants of health: a study of a rural neighborhood in southern Minas Gerais

  • Advisor : LUIZ FELIPE SILVA
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • DANIELA ROCHA TEIXEIRA RIONDET COSTA
  • JOSÉ VITOR DA SILVA
  • LUIZ FELIPE SILVA
  • Data: Mar 6, 2020


  • Show Abstract
  • Residents in rural areas are known to benefit less from access to health services; most of them have no guarantee of the right to health, as established by the Federal Constitution and are penalized for health inequities. Studies in the field of social epidemiology on the social determinants of health (DSS) seek to analyze the economic and social factors that promote health inequities. DSS are impacting circumstances on the conditions under which people are born, live, grow, use and age and, consequently, influence their health status. The objective of this work was to know the influence of social determinants on the health of the population in a rural neighborhood. This is an epidemiological, observational, exploratory study, with a descriptive, cross-sectional design, of a qualitative and quantitative nature and with data collection and analysis technique based on the Theory of Social Representations by the Collective Subject Discourse (CSD). Microsoft Excel® software was used to analyze quantitative data and DSCsoft® software to analyze qualitative data. The study was carried out with the resident population of the Pessegueiro neighborhood, located in the rural area of the municipality of Itajubá-MG. The results obtained revealed a marked prevalence of female residents, aged between 30 and 39 years, married, with an average of three children / dependents, with an education level based on elementary school and an average income of one to three minimum wages; among the main morbidities investigated, chronic non-communicable diseases stand out, with arterial hypertension having a higher percentage of prevalence in the family group; of the DSS the living conditions that most influenced were: presence of mold and smoke caused by a wood stove found in the homes, no network and sewage treatment in the neighborhood, there is still a percentage of the population that did not have access to water treated by supply network. Regarding the perception of health, the residents consider it to be good, however, the predominant or unknown about DDS, mainly those of an environmental nature, predominated. It is concluded that intervening in the equity of health of this population is essential to overcome / eliminate inequalities and inequities in health. Government action is necessary to intercede with differentiated actions, proposing public policies, mainly in the scope of basic sanitation and access to health services and the involvement of community residents in awareness actions.

6
  • VANÊSSA LOPES DE FARIA
  • Soil quality under banana cultivation in conventional and organic systems in Gonçalves (MG)

  • Advisor : ELIANE GUIMARAES PEREIRA MELLONI
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • BRUNO MONTOANI SILVA
  • ELIANE GUIMARAES PEREIRA MELLONI
  • MARIA RITA RAIMUNDO E ALMEIDA
  • Data: Mar 9, 2020


  • Show Abstract
  • The banana cultivation has received a huge contrast in the South of Minas Gerais. It has been granted by its soil and climate conditions, its altitude and the crop management used by the farmers. This increase betrays how important is to evaluate the impact of production about the soil quality, independent of the adopted productions system, be it organic or conventional, which can be done through indicators. Within the context aimed to evaluate the soil quality depending on different banana cultivation conventional and organic systems, through integrated analysis of physical, chemical, microbiological and visual attributes, using an area of a native forest as reference. The deformed and not deformed samples were collected at a depth of 0 to 20 cm in the city of Gonçalves (Minas Gerais’ state), then undergo to physic analysis (texture, soil density, particle density, total porosity, weighted geometric mean diameter); chemical (soil fertility and organic matter); microbiological (microbial biomass carbon, microbial activity and qCO2); and visual indicators related to soil, vegetation, soil and wild fauna. The results indicate that the cultural practices and the soil management adopted in the organic and conventional productions system contributed to an expressive contribution or organic matter attributed to the constant depositions of the biomass of the banana tree, with no difference with the reference area of native forest. Thus, maintenance the physic, microbiological and visual of the soil. The chemical indicators showed chemical conditions favorable to the development of the breeding stock in organic systems, and especially in conventional systems, where, in addition to the deposited organic material, chemical inputs were added. The limitations of the selection of chemical indicators are highlighted, which did not assess the effects of chemical inputs used in conventional systems, which is the main factor that differentiates the management carried out in organic and conventional systems.

7
  • MARIANA MOREIRA DOMINGOS
  • INFLUENCE OF WATER VEGETABLE EXTRACTS ON THE BEHAVIOR OF MICRO-ORGANISMS OF AGRICULTURAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPORTANCE

  • Advisor : ROGERIO MELLONI
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • FRANCISCA ALCIVANIA DE MELO SILVA
  • GUSTAVO MAGNO DOS REIS FERREIRA
  • HISAIAS DE SOUZA ALMEIDA
  • ROGERIO MELLONI
  • Data: Mar 11, 2020


  • Show Abstract
  • Among the alternative methods to pesticides used in agroecological crops, the use of medicinal plants by-products is an important strategy for the management of pests and diseases. Medicinal plants have a high diversity of secondary metabolites that are involved in specific functions to protect against invading organisms and attract pollinators. Many of these have fungitoxic, eliciting, inhibiting mycelial growth and spore germination, and phytoalexin inducing action. The use of plant extracts and essential oils, depending on the concentration, can provide synergistic relationships, causing an antagonistic effect to certain species of microorganisms and allelopathy to certain plant species. Few studies on the influence of secondary metabolites have been conducted on soil microbiota and the formation of mutualistic symbiosis. Therefore, this work aims to analyze the effects of aqueous plant extracts of Mentha spicata, Tagetes patula, Cymbopogon nardus and Allium sativum on: 1) the soil microbiota, in general; 2) on the phytopathogenic microorganism Fusarium oxysporum and 3) those forming mutualistic symbiosis such as arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF). To obtain the aqueous extract, 100 mL of distilled water was added over 10 g of dry biomass to result in the crude aqueous extract. To evaluate the effect on the soil microbiota (1), activity, biomass and metabolic coefficient were determined, with the extracts diluted in distilled water to 10.0, 7.5, 5.0 and 2.5% w/v. For the evaluation of the antifungal activity of the extracts in F. oxysporum (2), they were incorporated in a BDA culture medium where a phytopathogenic mycelium disk was peaked in the center of each plate. The percentage of inhibition of mycelial growth was determined. The evaluation of the plant extract in the mycorrhizal formation (3) was carried out in plastic containers, which had their volume filled by substrate composed of soil and sand sample. Each substrate was infested with 50 spores of AMF. After sowing, the pots received the application of the plant extract in their respective concentrations. Colonization and intensity of mycorrhizal colonization by AMF were evaluated. Unlike microbial biomass, plant extracts negatively influenced metabolic indicators. The aqueous extracts of A. sativum, M. spicata and C. nardus showed fungistatic activity on the development of F. oxysporum, with A. sativum extract having the greatest effect on the percentage of inhibition of mycelial growth. The concentrations of the aqueous extract of A. sativum interfered negatively in the mycorrhizal colonization of AMF Gigaspora rosea and in the internality of mycorrhizal colonization of AMF Gigaspora rosea and Rhizophagus clarus inoculated in corn plants. The species of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungus R. clarus, under the experimental conditions, provided greater height and dry matter production of the aerial part of the colonized plants.

8
  • CAMILA COELHO WELERSON
  • SEASONAL STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR THE SÃO FRANCISCO RIVER BASED ON NUMERICAL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS

  • Advisor : BENEDITO CLAUDIO DA SILVA
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • BENEDITO CLAUDIO DA SILVA
  • MICHELLE SIMOES REBOITA
  • TALITA FERNANDA DAS GRAÇAS SILVA
  • Data: Mar 12, 2020


  • Show Abstract
  • Brazil has faced one of the biggest water crises in recent years as a result of extreme hydrological and meteorological events. An irregularity of rain events has a recorded effect or water balance in the hydrographic basins, for example in the São Francisco River basin, a region with high water vulnerability and with desertification trends. Due to the extreme national relevance of this basin for the country, the present study had as main objective the analysis of the predictability of extreme events that altered the water availability of the São Francisco River basin, from the integration of a regional atmospheric model and a hydrological model. For this purpose, a set of five members of seasonal rainfall forecasts was used for each month between the periods from 2001 to 2018, these being generated by a downscaling of the atmospheric model Eta of CPTEC/INPE. These data were provided as input variables in the hydrological model MGB-IPH in the generation of seasonal streamflow forecasts in the São Francisco River basin. As for the observed data of rainfall and streamflow, used in the comparison with the predicted data, these were obtained from historical series of pluviometric and fluviometric stations of the National Water Agency (ANA), respectively, in addition to series of natural streamflows of the hydroelectric use in the case of the Três Marias, Sobradinho, Itaparica/Luiz Gonzaga and Paulo Afonso/Moxotó hydroelectric stations. The accuracy of the forecasts was analyzed both visually and statistically using the Relative Mean Error (EMR), Mean Absolute Error (EMA) and Pearson's Linear Correlation Coefficient (r) indicators. The results of the EMR and r indices indicated that, in general, the Eta/MGB models showed a good performance of the seasonal streamflow forecasts for the basin, mostly for the sub-basins located in the Upper and Lower São Francisco. Regarding the precedents, no significant differences were observed between the horizons analyzed, although the results for one month were relatively better considering the r index. However, it points to the need for corrections to the rainfall forecasts and the bias in the streamflow forecasts in some regions, as in the case of Sobradinho, which showed some systematic errors.

9
  • IGOR CRABI DE FREITAS
  • Soil aggregation in pastures under different quality indexes and their influence on water infiltration.

  • Advisor : ELIANE GUIMARAES PEREIRA MELLONI
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • ADINELE GOMES GUIMARAES
  • BRUNO MONTOANI SILVA
  • ELIANE GUIMARAES PEREIRA MELLONI
  • Data: Mar 12, 2020


  • Show Abstract
  • In Brazil, extensive livestock farming predominates in relation to confinement, which implies the use of large areas that, many times, are of low agricultural potential and susceptible to degradation. This research aims to study the relationship between physical, chemical and visual attributes of soil quality with the infiltration of water into the soil under different succession stages. For this, the Ribeirão José Pereira microbasin was chosen, a remaining area of Atlantic forest, in the city of Itajubá, with 4 areas in Argisolo: pasture in good condition (PB), pasture in the initial stage of succession; (CB), pasture in a more advanced stage of succession than CB (CA) and pasture in a very advanced stage of succession (CAO). To determine the physical, chemical and microbiological attributes, 3 samples were collected in each area, at a depth of 0-20 cm. Physical attributes were determined: soil density, porosity, wet and dry aggregate stability (geometric mean diameter - DMG and weighted average diameter - DMP), and classification of aggregates by formation (biogenic, physiogenic and intermediate). The chemical attributes were determined: pH in water, Ca, Na, Al, H + Al, Mg, P, K, MO, SB, CTC, V%, m%, P remaining. Visual analysis was performed using the reference methodology for assessing soil quality (RAQS). The infiltration analysis was performed with the aid of the Guelph permeate and the resistance to mechanical penetration of the soil using an impact penetrometer. To analyze the results, multivariate principal component statistics (PCA) were used, using the Past software, and the data were submitted to analysis of variance, using the Tukey test at 5%, using the Sisvar statistical program. From the results it was obtained that the natural succession should not be analyzed according to a parameter, but as a whole, given that, from it, better relations regarding the stability of the aggregates, porosity, macroporosity and hydraulic conductivity are expected. Thus, it was possible to classify the areas in the following increasing order of soil quality: PB, CB, CA and CAO.
10
  • JOÃO EDSON COSTA FERREIRA DA SILVA
  • DELIMITATION OF GULLY EROSION THROUGH GEOBIA (Geographic Object Based Image Analysis) AND USE OF CARTOGRAPHIC PRODUCTS FROM REMOTE PILOTED AIRCRAFT (RPA)

  • Advisor : NIVEA ADRIANA DIAS PONS
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • CAMILA DE SOUZA ANJOS LACERDA
  • NIVEA ADRIANA DIAS PONS
  • SAMARA CALCADO DE AZEVEDO
  • Data: Mar 13, 2020


  • Show Abstract
  • Nowadays, with environmental measures in evidence, it is common to discuss the best ways to obtain cartographic information about degraded areas. This information is of paramount importance for the effectiveness of some programs already proposed in Brazil, such as the Rural Environmental Registry and the Environmental Recovery Program. When it comes to degraded areas, there are several factors that contribute to degradation, especially soil degradation. Degradations of the soil when in the last state generate gullies, which present several damages to nature, as they have an irreversible state, being possible only their partial recovery. The monitoring of these areas, as well as information about them, is of the utmost importance to ensure control and define the conservation methods of these areas. Under this problem, this work aims to evaluate the efficiency of a classification procedure, oriented, semi-automatic (GEOBIA) in cartographic products produced by Remote Piloted Aircraft (RPA) for the delimitation of gullies. The use of cartographic products from ARP (Digital Elevation Model and Digital Orthophoto), is justified due to the low cost of the tool, as well as the Planimetric and Altimetric potential that these products have presented; Another important factor is the remote information through these products, which guarantees greater security in relation to conventional methods of obtaining information. The work addresses the combination of data mining and GEOBIA, as auxiliary techniques in gullet delimitation processes. The Procedures were carried out in two study areas, both located in the municipality of Itajubá-MG. In these areas, some control and checking points were defined for the classification of cartographic products in relation to the Digital Cartographic Accuracy Standard. The products presented class A, for the 1 / 2,000 scale. Some segmentation parameters were determined to form reliable segments for each specific study area, then the most relevant attributes were determined for the classification and construction of the decision tree for each area. In making the decision tree, the C 4.5 algorithm was used. The results were satisfactory at levels of precision (Kappa index between 0.89 and 0.92), making it possible for the techniques used in cartographic products from ARP to be a tool for delimiting degraded areas of the gully erosion.

11
  • TALITA NAZARETH DE ROMA
  • Environmental awareness through data from the local fauna of the Serra dos Toledos Biological Reserve in the Atlantic Forest biome.

  • Advisor : DANIELA ROCHA TEIXEIRA RIONDET COSTA
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • DANIELA ROCHA TEIXEIRA RIONDET COSTA
  • LUIZ FELIPE SILVA
  • ADRIANA MARIA IMPERADOR
  • LEONARDO FRASSON DOS REIS
  • LUCIANA BOTEZELLI
  • Data: Mar 13, 2020


  • Show Abstract
  • In natural ecosystems, fauna is important, as it is a primary resource and its presence in nature is an index of integrity and vigor of the natural environment, which has beneficial influences on human habitat and well-being. However, these animals are one of the least understood resources in Brazil, where they have become the victim of ignorance about the structure and dynamics of ecosystems, as they cannot survive only with small fragments, wild fauna has economic importance for ecosystems that, in most cases, it can be larger than domestic animals (PARDINI, 2004; NEGRÃO; VALLADARES-PÁDUA, 2006). The inappropriate use of natural resources created an abyss between development and sustainability. The levels of devastation of natural environments are alarming, urbanization has transformed natural environments into ever larger cities. Faced with this situation, Environmental Education can become an effective management mechanism for public policies in relation to the environment, as it constitutes a process that helps in the critical understanding of the environment. It also develops behaviors that allow people to assume a position of interaction regarding demands related to the conservation and sustainable use of natural resources (BORGES; ARANHA; SABINO, 2010). Thus, the general objective is to survey the fauna of the Serra dos Toledos Municipal Biological Reserve (RBST) and verify whether, through the use of fauna data related to the RBST, it is possible to raise awareness about conservation, aiming to achieve the objectives of creating the UC . The specific objectives are: a) To collect in situ data on richness, occurrence, diversity and uniformity of mammals in the northwest region of the RBST; b) Identify the prior and subsequent environmental awareness of the school community. It also sought to disseminate these data that aim to contribute to the environmental conservation of the Conservation Unit (UC), giving greater visibility to the Biological Reserve, seeking an essential strategy for the engagement of society in the challenging task of conserving the natural, cultural and historical diversity of this territory .

12
  • WINNE NAYADINI BARÃO
  • TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION AND CONFLICT OF LAND USE IN THE MUNICIPALITY OF SENADOR AMARAL, MINAS GERAIS

  • Advisor : ELIANE GUIMARAES PEREIRA MELLONI
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • ELIANE GUIMARAES PEREIRA MELLONI
  • LILIAN VILELA ANDRADE PINTO
  • NIVEA ADRIANA DIAS PONS
  • SAMARA CALCADO DE AZEVEDO
  • Data: Mar 13, 2020


  • Show Abstract
  • Soil degradation has seriously threatened food production and food security in the world. Mainly due to the absence of environmental indicators to plan the expansion of agricultural activities, which can result in soil loss and decreased agricultural and livestock productivity. Studies on the dynamics of land use and occupation and assessments of land use capacity are essential tools for monitoring and rational planning of land use, since they provide a global view of the problem and the delimitation of possible causes of environmental degradation, in addition to pointing out the potential and limitations of the physical environment. In this context, the present study aimed to carry out the temporal analysis of environmental degradation, in 2008 and 2018, in the municipality of Senador Amaral (MG), resulting from land use conflicts in Areas of Permanent Preservation (APPs) of springs, slopes, hilltops and zones riparian and use beyond its capacity. The initial mapping was based on the survey and characterization of the physical and geomorphological aspects of the terrain, such as the delimitation of the drainage network, hydrographic micro-basins and APPs of springs, slopes, hilltops and zones riparian, and also in the identification of degraded areas. For the elaboration of the land use and land cover map of the municipality, in the years 2008 and 2018, images from Landsat 5 (sensor TM-C1) and Landsat 8 (OLI sensor) were used, respectively, with spatial resolution of 30 m for supervised classification by the maximum likelihood statistical algorithm (MaxVer). The land use conflict maps according to CFB and the agronomic capacity were obtained by overlapping data initially collected. The most representative class of use identified in the study was that of pasture, occupying 50.14% of the municipal area, followed by forests (25.37%) and bare soil (16.60%). APPs represent 9.83% of the total area, 57.68% of which are not in compliance with environmental legislation. Through the integrated analysis of the forms of use and occupation and the classification of the capacity, it was possible to verify that there are 38.83 km² of areas being used outside the productive capacity of the soils. According to the Land Use Capacity System, the most recommended land uses for the municipality of Senador Amaral are pastures, reforestation and preservation of wildlife, however, there is a significant number of areas also suitable for the cultivation of annual and perennial crops.

13
  • ADRIANA DE CÁSSIA BARBOSA
  • Socio-environmental communication techniques as a strategy for implementing municipal social mobilization plans

  • Advisor : GERALDO LUCIO TIAGO FILHO
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • CARLOS ALBERTO ZANOTTI
  • DANIELE ORNAGHI SANT'ANNA
  • GERALDO LUCIO TIAGO FILHO
  • Data: Apr 16, 2020


  • Show Abstract
  • Since the creation of Law 10,257, in 2001, where the City Statute is established, which manages the implementation of the Master Plan as a public policy instrument for urban development and expansion, much has been debated on ways to implement it in a way that have a broad participation of the population in the process of elaborating the plan. Eighteen years after the law was created, many benefits can be assessed for Brazilian municipalities. However, there is still a gap with regard to the Participatory Master Plan, since its implementation is mostly done in a way in which the population is left out of the relevant decisions during the preparation of the document. In this context, the present study intends to address the way in which popular participation in the process of studying and implementing plans can be motivated through a communication plan. In it will be presented the comparative Case Study between the municipality of Paraguaçu and the Intermunicipal Consortium of the Municipalities of the Microregion of Alto Sapucaí - Cimasas, both located in the south of Minas Gerais. This study aims to verify the application of socio-environmental communication techniques as a tool for social mobilization in the implementation of municipal master plans.
    The results obtained through research, it can be seen that during the implementation of the mobilization plans, with the municipalities in question, there was a marked difference between the actions.
    In the municipality where there was a concern to know the profile of the citizens and based on this diagnosis to outline a personalized communication strategy, the community's response, through their participation in the hearings, was more significant.
    This is due to the fact that when the citizen understands that he, too, can be heard and his opinion can also add, he feels comfortable exercising his citizenship more effectively, during the elaboration, implementation and or review of social mobilization plans .

14
  • ANA CRISTINA MAGALHÃES ARAUJO GORGULHO
  • Analysis of the Regulatory Scenario for the Environmental Licensing of Small Hydroelectric Plants

  • Advisor : GERALDO LUCIO TIAGO FILHO
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • DANIELA ROCHA TEIXEIRA RIONDET COSTA
  • GERALDO LUCIO TIAGO FILHO
  • MARIA CLAUDIA COSTA DE OLIVEIRA BOTAN
  • Data: Apr 17, 2020


  • Show Abstract
  • The growing demand for electricity in Brazil and the intensification of the discussion about the preservation of the environment makes the research of means of electricity generation with low environmental impact always current and necessary. The hydraulic power station uses cause great environmental impacts, especially by the extension of flooded area. Energy production from Small Hydroelectric Power Plants may be an effective alternative, whose technology is widely dominated in the country, and which have a minor impact on the environment. The main objective of this research was to analyze the normative aspect of environmental licensing for the implantation of Small Hydroelectric Plants, identifying options for their real improvement. As a work methodology, a survey of the legislation concerning environmental licensing in Brazil was carried out, identifying the contribution of Small Hydroelectric Plants to the Brazilian electricity sector and the main obstacles of the environmental licensing process in the current regulatory scenario. Environmental licensing processes for Small Hydroelectric Power Plants underway in the Regional Environment Superintendencies of Minas Gerais were also analyzed. The research showed that, among other aspects, the excessive discretion of the Administration, the obscurity of the norm, the diversity in the required documentation of the entrepreneur, the overlapping of norms, and the precariousness of the structure, including technical personnel, cause the slowness and subjectivity of the procedure. So also the lack of a classification of the Small Hydroelectric Power Plants according to their size, degrading potential, flooded area and locational criteria. The research also pointed out that simple measures such as the unification of standards at the federal level or even at the state level, associated with red tape, and the setting of quality parameters for environmental studies would bring a great benefit to the sector.

15
  • GRAZIELLE GONÇALVES INOCÊNCIO
  • Contribution of green roof coverage in the municipality of São Paulo to regularize the level of the Itumbiara reservoir

  • Advisor : ARCILAN TREVENZOLI ASSIREU
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • ARCILAN TREVENZOLI ASSIREU
  • BRENDA CHAVES COELHO LEITE
  • DANIELE ORNAGHI SANT'ANNA
  • Data: Aug 28, 2020


  • Show Abstract
  • The untidy urban growth and the little concern with the use and occupation of the soil, allied to problems such as the heat islands, damage the quality of life of Brazilian citizens. In the XXI century, the use of techniques that are less aggressive to the environment for sustainable development becomes more prevalent. The green roof has been used and disseminated more and more because it is a structure that uses vegetation in its composition and is pointed out by several authors as beneficial to the environment. Also, its use appears as an alternative to reduce the ambient temperature and a tool to achieve thermal comfort. Due to climatic changes, the demand for artificial conditioning, with the intuition of maintaining thermal comfort, tends to be more and more usual and growing. In recent years, the São Paulo macro-metropolis has suffered from the water and energy crisis, which has increased the interest in plans that will mitigate these problems. In order to minimize this water and energy situation, the work evaluates the energy savings that could be achieved with the green roof in every roof area of the households available in the city of São Paulo. The savings come from the thermal comfort generated by such vegetated cover and the non-use of equipment for cooling and heating the internal environment. It was found in an intermediate scenario and from the applied methodology that it is possible to save in one year with air conditioning of the reverse type in electricity to the order of 2434 TW with heating and 303 TW with cooling to maintain the internal environment at constant temperature 24ºC, equivalent to 5.70 and 0.71 meters of the saved water column, respectively. Considering an average area of 750 km² of the Itumbiara reservoir, it is clear that the volume of water collected is significant.

16
  • HELLEN LUISA DE CASTRO E SILVA
  • Technical and economic evaluation of the effect of adding iron ore from mining waste on the production of biogas from swine manure.

  • Advisor : REGINA MAMBELI BARROS
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • MARCO AURÉLIO KONDRACKI DE ALCÂNTARA
  • ELECTO EDUARDO SILVA LORA
  • IVAN FELIPE SILVA DOS SANTOS
  • REGINA MAMBELI BARROS
  • Data: Sep 17, 2020


  • Show Abstract
  • Anaerobic digestion represents a strategic treatment method to high generation of manure by swine, generating biogas, a type of renewable fuel and an organic substrate. However, the high variability of methane and cost of operation make its dissemination in Brazil minimal and slow. In this line, the innovation of the present study consists in the use of iron ore tailings to optimize this process in pig farming. For the study, mineralogical and toxicological analyzes were carried out of the mining waste from the Conceição II (Vale do Rio Doce Company), followed by the anaerobic digestion of the excrement in sequential batch reactors (SBRs) with tailings / substrate dosages of 1.56 kg / m3, 3.12 kg / m3 and 4.69 kg / m3 to then assess the use of the additive in the process by analyzing the reduction of organic constituents, trace elements, production and composition of the biogas generated. In the last part of the study, the toxicity of the substrate with the species E. Crypticus was analyzed, followed by the economic analysis of the entire process using uncertainty methodology. The results indicated the presence of the elements Fe, K, Si, Al, Mg, Ca, Na and P in the additive, obtaining the production of 8.41.10-2 m3 CH4 / kg substrate and reductions in organic load of 77% and 81, 4% for the maximum applied dosage. The level cost of electricity ranged from 350 - 450 R$ / MWh for scenarios with 50 thousand and 200 thousand heads, which values are not competitive in relation to other renewable energy sources in the country. The application of the substrate in the soil was highly toxic for organisms in all treatments. In this sense, although the promising use of this residue in this technology, further studies must be carried out to decrease the trace elements in the fertilizer generated.

17
  • RAFAEL BITENCOURT BENASSI
  • Consequence of the increase in the global average temperature by 1.5oC and 2oC in the water balance for eucalyptus in South America.

  • Advisor : FABRINA BOLZAN MARTINS
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • BERGSON GUEDES BEZERRA
  • FABRINA BOLZAN MARTINS
  • MARCELO DE PAULA CORREA
  • ROGER RODRIGUES TORRES
  • Data: Dec 17, 2020


  • Show Abstract
  • The 21st Conference of the Parties, held in the city of Paris in 2015, established a new
    international agreement, known as the Paris Agreement, with the main objective of keeping
    global warming below 2°C and making efforts to limit this increase to 1.5°C, in relation to
    pre-industrial levels. However, even if the thresholds foreseen in the Paris Agreement are
    reached, several impacts on the climate system are still inevitable, mainly on a local scale,
    which may generate new vulnerabilities and expand those that already exist. In this sense, the objectives of this master's dissertation were: to analyze the regional climatological patterns of the near surface air temperature and precipitation over South America (SA) due to the increase in the global average temperature by 1.5oC and 2oC when compared to the pre-industrial period; to analyze the impacts on the extracts of the climatological water balance (Real Evapotranspiration, Water Deficiency and Water Surplus), and the consequences on the aptitude for eucalyptus cultivation in SA. As key results, it is noteworthy that the regional warming threshold of 1.5°C and 2°C will be reached primarily at the South American continent central area. Regarding the patterns of precipitation, it should be noted that the Brazil’s Southern region, the northern coast of the Brazilian Northeastern region, northern Argentina, Uruguay and parts of Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela will be affected with an increase in average annual precipitation, up to 100 mm year-1, in the period when the global average warming thresholds are projected at 1.5°C and 2°C. This result will disfavor the cultivation of eucalyptus in 49.2% and 56.8% of the South American continent, during the heating period of 1.5°C and 2°C, respectively. In Brazil, only the Southern and part of the Southeastern regions will be suitable for growing eucalyptus considering the water availability. For the other regions, mainly in the Midwest and North of Brazil and the central north of Argentina, the cultivation of eucalyptus will be negatively affected, requiring mitigation measures and adaptation strategies, such as the use of species (hybrids and genetically altered) and the use of irrigation, which would represent a great addition to the costs of operation and of forest management.

18
  • THALES TITO BORGES
  • ADAPTIVE CAPACITY OF BRAZILIAN MUNICIPALITIES OF SMALL AND MEDIUM SIZE TO CLIMATE CHANGE: APPLICATION OF AN URBAN ADAPTATION INDEX IN THE CITIES OF SOUTHERN MINAS GERAIS

  • Advisor : ROGER RODRIGUES TORRES
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • FABIANO DE ARAÚJO MOREIRA
  • DANIELA ROCHA TEIXEIRA RIONDET COSTA
  • GABRIELA MARQUES DI GIULIO
  • ROGER RODRIGUES TORRES
  • Data: Dec 17, 2020


  • Show Abstract
  • The measurement of the adaptive capacity of a system to climate change faces numerous challenges, such as addressing the multiple scales, temporality and its complex systems, as well as defining criteria and dimensions to evaluate a concept that is socially constructed. With regard to the measurement of adaptive capacity in the urban context, there are gaps in the literature, while there are opportunities, since indicators can underpin the construction of public policies and make cities less vulnerable to climate change. With regard to a country of continental dimensions such as Brazil, there are other challenges, such as improving the adaptive capacity of small and medium-sized cities, since cities with up to 20,000 inhabitants are not obliged to execute the basic documents that regulate the use and occupation of land, even if they correspond to 68.4% of Brazilian cities. In this context, the objective of this work is to analyze, from the aspect of governance and public policies of urban planning, the adaptive capacity of Brazilian cities, small and medium, to climate change, with special focus on 5 (five) municipalities in southern Minas Gerais. The methodology for measuring the adaptive capacity used was the Urban Adaptation Index (UAI), for all Brazilian municipalities, where the correlations between adaptive capacity and spatial, demographic and degree of urbanization of Brazilian municipalities were analyzed. We sought to find common similarities and practices in the 5 dimensions that make up the IAU – housing, urban mobility, agriculture, environmental management and risk management – especially in small and medium-sized municipalities, in order to make inferences of how they behave in the face of climate change. In a national context, it can be highlighted, from the point of view of municipal governance, that Brazilian municipalities have low adaptive capacity, being 56% with very low or low IAU, and only 9% with high or very high. For small and medium-sized cities, the correlation between population size and adaptive capacity was low (r = 0.22), but positive, but positive, indicating that there is a correlation, even if low between adaptive capacity and population size. The correlation between the degree of urbanization and adaptive capacity, although relatively higher (r = 0.31), is still low, but also reinforcing the hypothesis that municipalities with lower rates of urbanization have lower rates of adaptive capacity. The case study corroborates this understanding, since managers of smaller and more inland municipalities were more willing to elaborate and discuss public policies aimed at rural areas, in addition, it was remarkable the perception about climate risks of managers of municipalities in a risk area, demonstrating that the IAU can be an efficient mechanism for measuring municipal adaptive capacity , mainly under the governance aspect of public policies of urban planning. In this context, the work sought to contribute to the analyses and discussions carried out in the expansion of knowledge about small and medium-sized cities in the relationship of governance and public policies in relation to climate change.


19
  • PEDRO MARCELO DE MORAES MENDONÇA
  • TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF DISTRIBUTED GENERATION WITH PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS IN PUBLIC BUILDINGS: CASE STUDY IN THE ITAJUBÁ-MG CITY

  • Advisor : GERALDO LUCIO TIAGO FILHO
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • GERALDO LUCIO TIAGO FILHO
  • IVAN FELIPE SILVA DOS SANTOS
  • MARIA CLAUDIA COSTA DE OLIVEIRA BOTAN
  • Data: Dec 18, 2020


  • Show Abstract
  • Electricity generation from renewable energy sources, has been gaining market and confidence in the world and, being the subject of discussions on sustainability in global and local forums, in particular in Brazil, with recent regulatory incentives in the distributed generation. Municipal public authorities spend considerable amounts of public financial resources to guarantee electricity for the administration. This study analyzed the technical feasibility for scaling the deployment and operation of photovoltaic generation systems on the roof of buildings and the economic feasibility of investing through own resources and financing to attend the demand for electricity from public administration services and systems located in the city of Itajubá-MG, as a case study. The results demonstrate a need for a considerable initial investment and with a more attractive economic advantage of investment from financing. It is possible to conclude a great opportunity for the municipality's administration to become self-sustainable in energy generation and to reinvest, approximately R$ 1 million per year, in other areas of the municipality with the economic return of the system after 6 years in the worst scenario analyzed.

2019
Dissertations
1
  • VERUSKA ALVES NOGUEIRA
  • MUDANÇAS CLIMÁTICAS NO SUL DE MINAS GERAIS: POSSÍVEIS IMPACTOS E PERCEPÇÃO DE RISCOS

  • Advisor : ROGER RODRIGUES TORRES
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • DANIELA ROCHA TEIXEIRA RIONDET COSTA
  • GABRIELA MARQUES DI GIULIO
  • MARIA DA PENHA COSTA VASCONCELLOS
  • ROGER RODRIGUES TORRES
  • Data: Jun 19, 2019


  • Show Abstract
  • Environmental changes and climate change make their presence in everyday life of citizens, bringing, from a theoretical and methodological point of view, the need to ask about a set of new risks and threats that could worsen adverse situations that are already in place in urban centers. At the local level, where populations are directly affected by those changes and adaptation actions need to be urgently thought out and implemented, this response movement must address key issues of urban governance. In this context, understanding the relationship between the perception of a phenomenon and its occurrence is extremely important, especially for decision makers in terms of actions and strategies that need to be implemented at the local level. In this sense, the general objective of this thesis is the identification and analysis of possible impacts of climate change predicted for municipalities on the southern area of the state of Minas Gerais, as well as the perceptions from local institutional actors about climate events, risks and adaptation strategies. In order to do so, a recent and a projected climate scenario for the Southern region of MG were traced using both RCCI and SCVI indexes and using bibliographic review data on projections, impacts and monitoring and alert systems from the region under study. In addition, an analysis of secondary data was made using questionnaires on climate change and adaptations completed by municipal agents from 59 of the 155 southern municipalities from the state of Minas Gerais. The data collected as well as the results obtained show that the municipalities of southern Minas Gerais are already suffering from the changes in climate and their associated impacts, although the problem of climate change is not yet an urgent issue within the political agenda. Certainly, all this analysis and discussion allows to increase our knowledge about how the second largest Brazilian state, having already a history of causing great impacts on environmental and economic issues, advances in adaptation and mitigation of climate change.

2
  • ATHOS MOISÉS LOPES SILVA
  • ESTUDO DE PRODUÇÃO E APLICAÇÃO DE CLORETO FÉRRICO OBTIDO DE REJEITO DE MINERAÇÃO DE FERRO NO TRATAMENTO DE ESGOTO SANITÁRIO

  • Advisor : HERLANE COSTA CALHEIROS
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • HERLANE COSTA CALHEIROS
  • MILADY RENATA APOLINARIO DA SILVA
  • PAULO DE CASTRO VIEIRA
  • Data: Jul 3, 2019


  • Show Abstract
  • Chemically Enhanced Primary Treatment (CEPT) can be used as a primary physical and chemical treatment option for the primary removal of undesirable compounds in various types of effluent treatment. Generally, the Ferric Chloride (FeCl3) is used as the coagulant in this treatment. In most cases, the implantation of a chemical treatment may become impracticable, since the use of coagulant agents represents high costs in its operation and for that reason, the development of new chemical products or alternative forms of obtaining already consolidated coagulants must be considered in CEPT. The main way of obtaining FeCl3 is through the reaction of Iron Oxide (Fe2O3) present in Hematite (Iron Ore) and Hydrochloric Acid (HCl). One of the by-products of Iron Mining is Reject, residues constituted of solids discarded in the ore beneficiation process, but these residues still have a high concentration of Fe2O3. Thus, this work sought to evaluate the production of FeCl3 through the mining tailings and the application of this coagulant in CEPT bench treatment using sanitary sewage. Based on the results of the tests, it was observed that it is possible to generate FeCl3 from RMF with similar quality to the commercial product. Regarding the application of FeCl3 / RMF in CEPT bench treatment, it can be observed that the application of dosages above 100 mg/L and 150 mg/L obtained the removal efficiencies of important parameters such as COD (Chemical Oxygen Demand) and Phosphorus Total effluent, close to commercial FeCl3. In view of this study, it was observed that RMF can be used as input for the production of FeCl3 to be used in effluent treatment.

3
  • MATIAS SALES SILVA
  • Influences of atmospheric and local forcing for pluviometric variability along the Paraíba do Sul river

  • Advisor : ARCILAN TREVENZOLI ASSIREU
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • ALEXANDRE CÂNDIDO XAVIER
  • ARCILAN TREVENZOLI ASSIREU
  • SAMIA REGINA GARCIA CALHEIROS
  • VANESSA SILVEIRA BARRETO CARVALHO
  • Data: Jul 11, 2019


  • Show Abstract
  • SILVA, Matias Sales. Influences of atmospheric and local forcing for pluviometric variability along the Paraíba do Sul river. 2019, 80 f. Dissertation (Master in Environment and Water Resources) - Institute of Natural Resources, Federal University of Itajubá, Itajubá, 2019.
    In the last decades, the Paraíba do Sul river basin, located in the Southeast region of Brazil, has presented extensive and / or recurrent periods of drought. Due to its great geographic extension, the basin suffers the influence of forcing in with regards the aspect of precipitation. The objective of this work is the identification of these forcing, whether meteorological and / or local, that regulate the rainfall regime in portions of the basin. To do this, we used the clustering technique, which, by means of rainfall stations datasets divides the study area with respect to homogeneity of precipitation. The analysis of dry and wet weather periods in each area of the basin was performed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (PPI), an index that has been widely used by the scientific community. Finally, for the identification of local factors associated with orographic precipitation, the Froude number was used. The results show that the basin can be divided into three sectors with respect to rainfall and that these can present different responses when analyzed according to the use of IPP. To these responses, a local effect can be associated, the presence of a downgrade of the Serra do Mar, which favors the entry of humid winds in the middle portion of the basin and assists in the occurrence of orographic rain.

4
  • NATÁLIA MIRANDA GOULART
  • Avaliação metodológica por sonda fluorimétrica para análise de biomassa de cianobactérias.

  • Advisor : ANA LUCIA FONSECA
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • ANA LUCIA FONSECA
  • ANDRÉA TUCCI
  • ARCILAN TREVENZOLI ASSIREU
  • WERNER SIEGFRIED HANISCH
  • Data: Jul 31, 2019


  • Show Abstract
  • The increase in the occurrence of toxic cyanobacterial blooms in aquatic ecosystems has led to
    the development of new detection methods for these organisms, one way being to use
    Phycocyanin pigment fluorescence in vivo, which has the advantage of providing real-time
    quantitative information.Thus, the aim of this study was to validate probe-derived fluorescence
    measurements of Phycocyanin to monitor cyanobacterial populations as well as possible
    flowering in continental aquatic systems. It is used for public supply in the metropolitan region
    of São Paulo,SP-Brazil.The collections were performed monthly between May and November
    2018, in three sampling points: Barragem; Corpo central and Taquacetuba. For quantitative
    analysis the water samples were collected at 20cm from the surface using a Van Dorn bottle
    and then preserved with 5% lugol. For the qualitative analysis of phytoplankton, the water
    samples were collected using a 20 μm meshed nylon mesh, horizontally dragged and preserved
    with 4% formaldehyde. Phytoplankton counts were performed by the UTERMÖL chamber
    sedimentation method in an inverted microscope and then the density calculation (cls.ml-1) was
    performed. For phytoplankton identification, a minimum of five slides were mounted and
    traversed transversely along their entire length to record as many taxa as possible. The HACH
    SS5X fluorimetric probe was used to analyze the variables: temperature, ammonia, pH,
    electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen, Chlorophyll-a, Phycocyanin and redox potential. In
    laboratory, Nitrate, Total Phosphorus and Chlorophyll-a were quantified. Ten phytoplankton
    classes, 15 genera of cyanobacteria were recorded, being Planktothix, the predominant genus
    in the three sampling points. Qualitatively 89 taxa were identified. Cyanobacteria and
    Chlorophyceae were the most representative groups, with 22 and 21 taxa respectively. In this
    study a moderate correlation (R2> 0.332, p <0,05) was observed between the probe-measured
    Phycocyanin fluorescence values and the laboratory cyanobacterial density. The construction
    of the two-dimensional perceptual map for the principal component analysis was perfectly
    framed to encompass the variability of the analyzed parameters, and positively correlate the
    electrical conductivity, total phosphorus and nitrate variables with the dam sampling point. The
    probe was able to measure and relate the amount of Phycocyanin with the Taquacetuba sample
    point that presented the highest density of Cyanobacteria and Cryptophyceae. Thus, the use of
    fluorimetric sensors is a promising auxiliary tool for real-time monitoring of the phytoplankton
    community dynamics. functioning as a complementary method to microscopic counting.

5
  • RIANNE BALBINO TAMAKI
  • RELAÇÃO ENTRE EXPOSIÇÃO AO RUÍDO URBANO COM A PREVALÊNCIA DE SINTOMAS DE DEPRESSÃO EM IDOSOS DE ITAJUBÁ, MG

  • Advisor : LUIZ FELIPE SILVA
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • AIDECIVALDO FERNANDES DE JESUS
  • DANIELA ROCHA TEIXEIRA RIONDET COSTA
  • LUIZ FELIPE SILVA
  • Data: Aug 9, 2019


  • Show Abstract
  • Depressive disorders tend to affect more and more people around the world, and the elderly are among the groups vulnerable to this disease. Some external factors, such as noise, may contribute to the occurrence of depression symptoms. Noise is an environmental factor that can contribute to stress, which can lead to depression. Aims to analyze the association between noise nuisance and the prevalence of depressive symptoms in elderly residents of the city of Itajubá, Minas Gerais. The study was conducted in the city of Itajubá, located in the south of Minas Gerais. Semi-structured questionnaires were applied in addition to the Yessavage Abbreviated Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15) in people aged 65 years and over. The questionnaires were applied in the Family Health Strategies. The population sampling process for questionnaire application and data collection was obtained by the simple random sample method. The data were evaluated as the multiple logistic regression method in the Epi Info program version 2010. The outcome variable was the depressive symptom evaluated by GDS. Of the 300 elderly participants in the study with mean age of 74 years, 35.3% (106) presented symptoms of depression, of which 64.2% were female. The multiple analysis of the explanatory variables and the outcome variable (presence of depressive symptoms: GDS) returned as variables of high significance for the outcome, age, the presence of extra paid activity and the annoyance due to various noises in the neighborhood. In addition, the odds of the elderly presenting depressive symptoms increase with age, in the presence of annoyance by general urban noises in their neighborhood, concomitant to the elderly not to perform an extra activity, remunerated. Noise, expressed by the nuisance provoked, contributes to the loss of the quality of life of the elderly, provoking irritation, stress and consequently the depressive symptoms. It is important to broaden the horizons of the mental health strategies of the elderly, including this research concern that can aggravate the loss of quality of life of this age group.

6
  • GABRIELA SANTOS
  • Trabalho Rural na Cultura do Morango e Malformações Congênitas: Estudo de Associação.

  • Advisor : LUIZ FELIPE SILVA
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • DANIELA ROCHA TEIXEIRA RIONDET COSTA
  • LUIZ CARLOS DIAS DA ROCHA
  • LUIZ FELIPE SILVA
  • Data: Aug 9, 2019


  • Show Abstract
  • The state of Minas Gerais is the largest producer of strawberries and the fifth largest consumer of agrochemicals in Brazil. The high exposure of rural workers to pesticides used in production can lead to unfavorable health outcomes. The objective of this work is to investigate the association between exposure to pesticides used in strawberry production and the occurrence of congenital malformations (MC) among the children of workers. The study was carried out with farmers in the rural areas of Bom Repouso, Estiva and Pouso Alegre, municipalities in the south of the state of Minas Gerais. The research used as an approach methodological an observational epidemiological investigation, using the technique of non-conditional logistic regression. A semistructured questionnaire was used to collect the variables of interest. The prevalence of congenital malformations was 5%. The significant variables associated with the outcome were: Schooling less than seven years of study (CR: 0.09, 95% CI: 0.01 - 0.88) and hours / day of work (CR: 1.609, 95% CI: 0,94 – 2,71).The cross-sectional study, with its limits, allowed analyzing the variables that showed a significant association between cases of congenital malformation the children of workers producing strawberries, as well as offering a contribution to prevention measures, as another argument for this relevant issue of public health, which is the excessive use and the massive presence of pesticides in agricultural production.

7
  • MURILO DA COSTA RUV LEMES
  • CLIMATE CHARACTERIZATION OF THE TIETÊ-SP RIVER

  • Advisor : MICHELLE SIMOES REBOITA
  • COMMITTEE MEMBERS :
  • ENRIQUE VIEIRA MATTOS
  • GILBERTO FERNANDO FISCH
  • JOSÉ RICARDO DE ALMEIDA FRANÇA
  • MICHELLE SIMOES REBOITA
  • ROGER RODRIGUES TORRES
  • Data: Dec 13, 2019


  • Show Abstract
  • The state of São Paulo, as well as the entire Tietê river basin, has great economic importance for the country, since its activities include the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors. Advancing the agricultural frontier and increasing urbanization / deforestation are factors that may affect the climate of the region. Given this context, the study aims to analyze the impact of changing land use and cover on surface temperature (Ts) in the Tietê river basin, as well as analyzing the climate projections of this variable until the end of the 21st century. For this, data from different sources (in situ and satellite measurements) were used, such as surface temperature measured by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor and 5 km climate projections from the ETA regional model until the end of the year. XXI century. The results indicate that Tsp has great sensitivity to change in land use and cover. For example, in the Lower Tietê sub-basin, the advance in the area intended for agriculture may already have caused a 1.3 ° C increase in the region's annual average. When the Ts is projected towards the end of the century, the change is expected to be even greater and may reach, in the lower portion of Tietê, up to 6ºC more than the present climate. Agricultural activities have intensified in the last 10 years in the state, and concomitantly contributed to an increase in deforestation. If no public policy is adopted in the sense of adaptation and mitigation, the effects can be negative for both the population and agriculture itself.

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